Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump and some Republicans are praying their hearts out for world peace that gas
prices go down before early voting starts in the fall. They think this will save Trump's approval
rating and thus Republicans running for Congress. It won't and there is actually some data to back
that up.
But first, as background, there is Trump's smoothed approval rating from G. Elliott Morris:
Notice that Trump's approval just keeps going down long-term. Trump's current approval average is at 36% and his disapproval is at 61%. His approval was pulled down by a recent CNN/SSRS poll with him at 34%, an AP/NORC poll with him at 33% and a Quinnipiac University poll with him at 32%. We are beginning to approach the Bush line (32%). Of all recent presidents, this is the worst performance at this point in their term. George W. Bush's net approval was at 42% (thanks to 9/11), Barack Obama was at -1%, Trump V1.0 was at -12%, Joe Biden was at -18%, and Trump v2.0 is at -25%. The only president in worse shape at this point in his second term was Richard Nixon—who was then a few days away from resigning. And all he did was try to cover up a second-rate burglary. Trump's approval is being pulled down by his score on cost of living, which is now at a net -42%. On most other issues, Trump is between his -8% on deportations and his -22% on trade.
Now on to gas prices and approval. Here is a graph showing Trump's net approval on the inflation/cost of living question and also the average price of gas:
Note that to make the comparison easier, the gas price scale is inverted, with higher on the graph representing lower gas prices and vice versa, as indicated by the scale on the right. When gas prices went up sharply, starting in March, Trump's net approval took a nosedive. But after the memorandum of misunderstanding was signed and prices began to drop, Trump's approval did not rise. It stayed the same. This is strong evidence that the damage is now baked in. Future price decreases, especially if they look tentative, are unlikely to help Trump much. And if he has hopes to the contrary, any such decreases had better happen soon because early voting begins in four states on Sept. 18 and more states shortly thereafter. (V)