Dem
47
GOP
53
The 100 or so days that Mainers have to decide on their next senator is positively luxuriant as compared to the roughly 28 days that South Carolinians have to pick a replacement for Lindsey Graham (and, by extension, their next senator). Yesterday, the five viable candidates met in the first of two debates, both of them scheduled for this week (inasmuch as the first round of voting is next Tuesday).
If any reader wants to watch the debate, here it is:
There were two things about it that were predictable. The first is that everyone on stage, except for Darline Graham, attacked Graham for her lack of experience. The second is that everyone on stage said that they had consulted with the mirror, mirror on the wall and had confirmed that they, are, in fact the Trumpiest one of all.
There was also one thing about the debate that was not predictable. Several of the candidates, including Graham, said they want to get rid of the Senate filibuster. In a world where Senate candidates from both parties are calling for an end to the practice, and where the old guard is retiring (Mitch McConnell) or dead (Lindsey Graham), change is coming, and probably sooner rather than later. The only real question is which party moves first.
The problem, for all of the candidates not named Darline Graham, is that if the key question is "Who is Trumpiest?", well, Graham has the President's endorsement and the other four people on stage do not. And Trump's influence is now showing up in polls. There were three new polls released over the weekend, and one of them had Graham leading her closest opponent by 14 points (30% to 16% for Rep. Russell Fry), while another had her leading by 10 (27% for Graham to 17% each for Fry and Rep. Ralph Norman). The third had Norman up 3 on Graham (22% to 19%).
The upshot is that this is going to go to a runoff, and Graham is almost certainly going to be one of the two candidates who survives to the final round. At that point, we have to assume that "she's Trump's candidate" will be enough to carry the day in a state Trump won by 18, 12 and 14 points in his three elections. What we don't know is what kind of a senator Graham will be. Will she be Graham-the-hawk or Graham-the-sycophant? (Z)