Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats control seven of the eight House seats in Maryland. But given the fact that the Republicans are trying to squeeze every bit of juice out of the orange, Marylanders have decided they want MD-01—the seat of Andy Harris (R-MD) on the Eastern Shore—as well. For technical reasons, they couldn't do this in 2026, so they are starting the process to draw a map for 2028 that will shut out the Republicans altogether. Shutouts are not unusual. Twenty-one states have them, including the six states with only one representative, which are an automatic shutout.
On Tuesday, the Maryland House passed H.B. 2100 and sent it over to the state Senate. Yesterday the state Senate also approved it. Under Maryland law, the governor's signature is not needed for constitutional amendments. The governor also has no veto power over constitutional amendments proposed by the legislature. Republicans are sure to challenge the bill in court, however.
Now the measure will be put on the Nov. ballot this year. The measure does not create the gerrymander. It gives the legislature the power to draw a new map now, so in January it will get to work and Harris will be out of a job in Jan. 2029.
It is very likely New York will also draw a new map for 2028 and California may draw an even more aggressive map. We are heading toward a model where every state with a trifecta shuts the other party out. There are 9 states without a trifecta, so they will have (somewhat) competitive elections. These states, at least at the moment, are AK, AZ, KS, MN, NV, NC, PA, and WI. After the November elections, it is possible that Democrats get the trifecta in AZ, MN, NV, and PA. Wisconsin is a long shot for Democrats. Republicans might get it in Kansas. In the worst case, it could be only Alaska (which has a strange coalition government) and North Carolina as the only states with mixed government. House elections are becoming the Electoral College: it's all or nothing.
The voters absolutely hate this kind of stuff. This means that if the Democrats get the national trifecta in 2029, they might be able to pass a law ending gerrymandering in one form or another. Republican politicians might not object if they see California and New York wiping out all their seats and they know the voters really want this nonsense to stop. (V)