Dem
47
GOP
53
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), or someone acting in his name, released a statement yesterday announcing that the Senator has been discharged from the rehab facility he was staying in, and that he will now be rehabbing from home. "On the advice of my doctors, I'll maintain an intensive regimen of physical therapy from home during the state work period, and I'll continue to engage with my staff and colleagues on important Senate business," the statement reads, in part.
It is improbable, at this point, that he's dead or in a vegetative state. First, too many people would have to be involved in the conspiracy to keep it going. Second, if the point is to pretend he's alive long enough to prevent a special election from being held, that deadline passed a few days ago. Third, if you're going to suddenly share the truth of his demise, then you would share news that says he's going downhill (e.g., "McConnell was rushed to the ICU today"), not news that suggests he's getting better. All of this said, it seems very probable at this point that whatever happened to the Senator, it has either affected his facial appearance, his voice, his cognitive functions, or some combination of the above. This is the only good explanation for why he'd be willing to pose for photos, but not willing to do any sort of interview.
In any case, it means that McConnell's seat will remain effectively empty until he's able to return to Washington. The Senator (or his people, at least) refused to offer up any sort of timeline, so don't discount the possibility that he never actually comes back, or that he doesn't come back until after the midterms. This is unfortunate news for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), because while McConnell said he's there in spirit, spirits don't get to vote in the Senate. And Thune could really use another generally reliable party-line voter right now.
The GOP Senate Conference is a mess right now, even more so than is normally the case. There are, in effect, three problems. The first of those is that the GOP senators want to spend money, but they aren't agreed on how to do it. A reconciliation bill would be un-filibusterable, but would be open to lots of amendments, which would give the Democrats opportunities to put the GOP Senators on the record on unpopular issues (say, the $1.8 billion slush fund) right before an election. As you might imagine, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is the loudest opponent of doing it this way. A normal budget bill, with money for the military and for farmers, might get enough Democratic votes in the Senate to pass. But it won't have all the goodies that some Republicans, including the Republican in the White House, want.
That brings us to the second problem. Donald Trump refuses to be realistic about what can actually be done in a reconciliation bill (Hint: NOT the SAVE Act). And he refuses to lift a finger to whip votes for a bill that does not meet his exact requirements. It is not easy to get a party-line (or near party-line) bill passed when the leader of the party refuses to get involved.
And then there is the third problem. After today, the senators are scheduled to be out of town until September 14. They all want that vacation, particularly during the worst part of the year when it comes to D.C.'s climate. And, of course, once September 14 rolls around, there won't be that many days left before the midterms, or before the end of this Congress. Especially since they are also not scheduled to be in session from October 3 through November 8, so that members up for reelection can campaign. To put a finer point on it, after today, the Senate has 14 working days scheduled before Election Day and another 22 scheduled before this Congress ends. That's not much.
Consequently, even though Thune has warned that a legislative "train wreck" could be coming, he has scheduled several votes for today. The senators will vote on Russia sanctions, on several nominations for federal office, and on a kick-the-can budget bill. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is going to try to get the ball rolling on a reconciliation bill, but the odds seem long. More importantly, though, it looks more and more like the GOP majority isn't going to get anything substantive done before the midterms, and will have to run on what's already been accomplished by them and their party. That basically boils down to "a big tax cut bill, and fewer border crossings." That is also a description of what the GOP ran on in 2018, and everyone knows how those midterms worked out for the red team. (Z)