Aug.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Election Preview

Lots of primary elections tomorrow. Good. Let's look at them in roughly the order of most interesting to least interesting.

• Wisconsin: Wisconsin is the mother of all swing states, so it always gets special attention (except in 2016, when Hillary Clinton took it for granted and didn't bother showing up). Proof of Wisconsin's ability to swing is easy to find. Just look at its senators: the very left-wing (lesbian) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and the very right-wing and very wealthy (north of $50M) businessman Ron Johnson (R-WI). No state can match this for diversity. Wisconsin doesn't have a Senate election this yea,r but political junkies in the Badger State have plenty to keep them sustained. The race for governor has been wild and woolly ever since Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) decided he didn't want a third term, even though Wisconsin law allows that.
  
  After Evers called it quits, his #2, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D-WI), jumped in. So did former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes (D), Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Assemblywoman Francesca Hong, and a handful of bit players. When Crowley discovered that he was the only one who wanted him to be governor, he dropped out, suspending his campaign on July 8, When Rodriguez discovered that her campaign manager had been cooking the books and the financial cupboard was bare, she was forced to drop out on July 17. When the Democratic powers-that-be panicked after Rodriguez left the race because they were scared to death that the Democratic Socialist Hong would win the primary and lose the general election, they convinced Crowley to un-drop out, which he did. Then Barnes took one for the team by dropping out on July 30 to avoid splitting the non-DSA vote (and to avoid scrutiny of his past behavior regarding female staffers).
  
  All this maneuvering left Hong and Crowley and a couple of minor candidates. Polls have Hong up by over 20 points. It will not be a surprise if she gets the nomination, but the battle for governor will be the most important test of the leftward march of the Democrats this year, even more than the Senate election in Michigan. In the end, we expect Michigan Democrats who don't like Abdul El-Sayed to hold their collective noses and vote for him because control of the Senate is so important. Hong doesn't have that advantage, plus state-level issues don't entirely align with federal issues, which is why some states that would never dream of electing a senator of a particular party will sometimes elect a governor from that same party (think Kansas or Kentucky or Vermont). El-Sayed will be getting money from all over the county because Democrats nationwide care about that race. Not many people outside Wisconsin care who the governor of Wisconsin is. The Republican candidate will be Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), who has Donald Trump's blessing and full endorsement. Whether that is a pro or a con in Wisconsin, a purple state with many farmers, is an excellent question.
  
  Hong is a young (37) socialist woman of color whose parents immigrated from South Korea. She attended UW Madison and studied Spanish and journalism but dropped out and became a dishwasher and later a line cook at a restaurant. She is definitely working class and very lefty. She was married to Matt Morris, but they divorced and she is a single mom now. Tiffany is an older (68), white right-winger who got a degree in agricultural economics and later ran a small oil company before he got into politics. The two are polar opposites. Hong will inherit all of Baldwin's supporters. Tiffany will inherit all of Johnson's supporters. The state's undecided voter will have to make the call. Assuming Hong gets the nomination, the general election will be a real barnburner.
  
  Some of the House races are competitive. In WI-01 (PVI R+2), incumbent Rep. Bryan Steil (R) will probably face nurse Mitchell Berman, who has the most money and many endorsements. This one could flip. In WI-03 (R+3), incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) will face either former president of the Eau Claire city council Emily Berge or else Rebecca Cooke, who is making her third try at unseating Van Orden. WI-07 (R+11) is Tiffany's open seat. There is a spirited Republican primary there, with Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy's son-in-law Michael Alfonso, PR pro Jessi Ebben, and former chairman of the Marathon County Republican Party Kevin Hermening.
  
  There are new maps for the state legislature chambers and Democrats have a shot at fliiping the state legislature. If Hong is elected governor, but the Republicans control the legislature, she will be stymied at every turn.
  
  
• Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) wants to be Gov. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) and will likely get her wish. Her open Senate seat has become a battleground. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing off against Rep. Angie Craig. This is a toughie for Democrats, who love them some identity politics. Flanagan is an enrolled member of the Ojibwe Nation (and you thought the Flanagans were all Irish?). Craig is a lesbian, originally from (not-especially-neighboring) Arkansas. She is the first openly gay mother elected to Congress. Something for everyone.
  
  Flanagan is leftier than Craig and has been endorsed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN), among others. Craig has been endorsed by Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and Sarah McBride (D-DE), among others. The most recent poll, from SurveyUSA ending Aug. 4, has Craig ahead 42% to 40%. So, toss-up.
  
  The only House district that is really competitive is MN-02 (D+3), Craig's district in the Twin Cities' southern suburbs. DFL-ers are former state Sen. Matt Little, state Sen. Matt Klein (which means "little" in German, Dutch, Afrikaans, and Yiddish—take that, you Sullivans in Alaska), and state Rep. Kaela Berg. Little and Klein have raised big money, Berg has raised little money.
  
  
• South Carolina: The death of Lindsey Graham forced a very quick emergency Republican primary in South Carolina. It will be held tomorrow. Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, hastily renamed Darline Graham, was appointed to the vacant seat and is running for a full term. She has Donald Trump's endorsement, even though nobody really knows what she believes. Plenty of time to figure that out after she is elected. Her opponents are Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry, famed Appalachian Trail hiker Mark Sanford, businessman Mark Lynch, and a few others. Polls show Graham way ahead, but not close to 50%, so there will be a runoff. A reminder of recent history: The Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R) came in first in the regular gubernatorial primary, then lost the runoff when the supporters of the other candidates consolidated behind AG Alan Wilson. Whoever wins the Senate runoff, which will take place in 2 weeks, will face pediatrician Annie Andrews. Pretty good chance South Carolina will get its first elected female senator on Jan. 3, 2027.
  
  
• Connecticut: In CT-01 (D+12), folksy Rep. John Larson (D-CT) has come under fire for his age. He would turn 80 during another term. Some Democrats think enough is enough. Generational change is the big issue here, with three younger Democrats challenging Larson. They are Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, and Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune. All three are moderates, so this is not a DSA vs. establishment race. It is just about age. Bronin is the best known of the three. However, it's first-past-the-post here. If the "youth" vote splits, Larson could survive. Ranked choice voting, anyone?
  
  
• Vermont: No Senate election here, but Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) wants another 2-year term. He will almost certainly get it. Fun fact: One time when (V) was on vacation in Vermont, he visited the state Capitol as a tourist. Scott was giving press conference about what the state was doing about cybersecurity. After the questions, (V) went over to him and introduced himself as a professor with a fair amount of expertise in cybersecurity. Scott was instantly interested. After some discussion of the issues at hand, Scott said he didn't trust any of the consultants he had and was (V) at the University of Vermont and would he like to be hired as a special adviser to the governor? (V) admitted he wasn't and declined the offer, but did get a photo with the governor:
  
  
  
  

  Scott seemed like a good public servant whose priority was doing things to help the people of his state, which is probably why he is the most popular governor in the country with an approval/disapproval of 74/19. The Democrats vying to replace him are economist Amanda Janoo and former lobbyist Aly Richards. Polls have Janoo a bit ahead.
  
  

• Alabama: There are gubernatorial and senatorial races in Alabama this year, but those primaries are over. There will be special primary elections in AL-01, AL-02, AL_06, and AL-07 as a result of a Supreme Court decision giving the Republicans the map they wanted. It changed the boundaries of these four districts. Democrats aren't even bothering to contest AL-01, AL-02 or AL-07. Four Democrats are running in AL-06 because it is the only one a Democrat could possibly win.

Hawaii held primary elections on Saturday. Gov. Josh Green (D-HI) was renominated easily. The Republicans managed to find a candidate, Gary Cordery, who will be crushed in November. More interesting was the primary in HI-01 (Honolulu). An older (73) blue-dog moderate, Rep. Ed Case (D-HI), was challenged by a younger (42) leftist, Jarrett Keohokalole. Have you seen this movie before? Well, as usual, the young guy won, surprise, the old guy won in a 24-point landslide. Maybe it is a little early to say that young progressives are taking over the Democratic Party. As they say, as NYC goes, so goes ... Wisconsin? In HI-02, Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) had four challengers and still got 92% of the vote. In November, the Democrats will win all the marbles, as usual. (V)