Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump's strategy on everything his whole life has been divide and conquer. He splits his opposition apart and then wears down each one individually. He probably thinks he can break up NATO and then bargain one-on-one with each country and force his will on each one. What he isn't counting on is regional alliances that form as a counterweight. While Europe hasn't formed its own defense organization (yet), if Trump pulls out of NATO, it almost certainly will.
But somewhat surprisingly, the first regional alliance that may confront Trump is not in Europe, but in the Muslim world. Three important Sunni Muslim countries have just signed a defense pact without Trump having anything to say about it. The three countries are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Here is the signing ceremony performed by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:
Each member of the trio brings something valuable to the deal. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia has more money than Croesus and Turkey has the second-biggest standing army in Europe. This is a formidable team.
This story has flown a bit under the radar, but anything involving war and peace in the Middle East clearly has potential to affect U.S. politics. For starters, Saudi Arabia no longer has to count on the U.S. for its defense. If Iran were to attack the Kingdom, the large, modern, and well-equipped Turkish army would be there for the Kingdom of Saud, backed up an implicit threat from Pakistan to go nuclear if things began looking bad. That won't make the U.S. irrelevant in the Middle East, but it does reduce its power. If Trump were to give MbS an order he didn't like and MbS disregarded it, Trump might say: "I won't defend you anymore." MbS can now reply: "My friends will."
Fundamentally, the agreement says that an attack on one of them is an attack on all of them. The agreement also strengthens military cooperation among the three countries in other ways. Among these is work on a maritime defense coalition. Turkey is also a major producer of military equipment, which the other two countries could start buying instead of U.S. equipment. Clearly this pact is aimed at Iran, but it is also a warning to the U.S. that it is not the only game in town anymore.
It is also a model for the E.U. If Trump pulls out of NATO, the members (which include Turkey) could also form a new defense pact. Japan, South Korea and other countries in Asia could also agree to form defense pacts. There could end up being half a dozen or more of them, the result of which would be a greatly reduced role for the U.S. in the world, something the next president would not be able to put back together. Trump would then have succeeded in his goal in changing the U.S. from a dominant world power to just another regional bully. That genie is not going back into the bottle. (V)