Dem
47
GOP
53
There were regular primary elections yesterday in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin, a special House-only primary conducted under the new Alabama district map, and a special primary in South Carolina to choose a replacement nominee for the deceased Lindsey Graham. There were quite a number of very interesting results. Let's run them down, starting with what we would rank as the five most notable, from first to fifth:
1. Governor, Wisconsin: The polls said Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong (D) would win her party's nomination in a walk. The aggregators all had her up an average of 23-25 points. The two polls of the race conducted in August (and therefore after Mandela Barnes dropped out) had her up 22 points (44% to 22%) and 18 points (42% to 24%) on the more moderate David Crowley.
The race went down to the wire, with the counting of the ballots continuing into the wee hours of the morning. But finally, with a bit more than 98% of the vote in, it was called... for Crowley. As of 1:00 a.m. PT, Crowley has 39.78% of the vote to 39.37% of the vote. The last big tranche of votes was from Milwaukee, and they put Crowley over the top, as he outpaced Hong by about 5% there. NBC News was the first to call the race for Crowley, but the AP, Decision Desk HQ and other outlets followed suit soon thereafter.
The Hill's report on the results declares:
The results are a far cry from the double-digit lead public polling suggested Hong held, underscoring that Democratic voters are even more divided than previously thought over their candidates and the direction of the party.We don't see how that is the conclusion at all. The obvious lesson here to us is that the pollsters are either overstating the progressive vote, or are understating the moderate vote, or both. It is true that this race was extra-wonky, since Barnes dropped out late, and then Crowley then dropped back in. It is also true that, in a repeat of the error from 2016, nobody polled Wisconsin in the last week of the race, meaning any late breaks went unnoticed. That said, 20+ points is a huge error, and it follows on the heels of a 10+ point error in favor of Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D), who barely won HIS squeaker. Clearly, the pollsters have some troubleshooting to do, and fast.
Hong was obviously not the ideal candidate in the eyes of more moderate Democrats, who will be pleased to have the much less controversial Crowley to rally around. She really also wasn't the ideal candidate in the eyes of many progressive Democrats, as she has a history of saying very impolitic things, and then flip-flopping when called on them. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), for example, declined to endorse her, and is presumably relieved that his wing of the party won't be on the hook for a (very possible) Hong loss.
The general election will now feature Crowley against the somewhat fringy Rep. Tom Tiffany (R), who was unopposed yesterday. There's been one recent poll of that matchup, and it had Crowley up 3, 46% to 43%.
2. U.S. Senator, Minnesota: Here, the progressives had a stronger candidate, and got the result they wanted. Looking to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (DFL-MN), the more progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL) trounced the more moderate Rep. Angie Craig (DFL), 59.0% to 39.4%. Flanagan has twice won statewide, and is not prone to saying unwise things that can easily be turned into Republican campaign ads. Between Flanagan and El-Sayed, the lefty wing of the Democratic Party is going to be watching the upper Midwest with great interest on election night.
The Republican in the race, as expected, will be former TV sports reporter Michele Tafoya. She is somewhat the opposite of Flanagan, as she has no political experience and a pretty long history of saying stupid things. The most recent poll of this matchup gives Flanagan a 7-point lead over Tafoya, 51% to 44%. It's a pretty old poll (conducted in late May), but that matches our gut feel, as Tafoya is certainly the weaker candidate and Minnesota is just barely swingy these days. The race raters all have it as either "Likely D" or "Safe D."
3. U.S. Senator, South Carolina: An important election, though one that did not offer much in the way of surprises. The Donald Trump-backed Darline Graham (R), sister of Lindsey, took 32.7% of the vote, which was not enough to avoid an August 25 runoff, but was enough to be one of the two candidates to advance. Her opponent will be Rep. Ralph Norman (R), who claimed 24.6% of the vote. Lindsey was not especially popular in South Carolina, Darline is a cipher, and Trump's endorsement doesn't have quite the oomph it once did, so this one could certainly go either way.
4. Governor, Minnesota: Speaking of Trump's endorsement, it did not get the job done on the Republican side of this primary. The President backed loyal sycophant, and all around nutter, Mike Lindell. Lindell was left crying into his MyPillow, because he got thoroughly outclassed by Speaker of the Minnesota House Lisa Demuth, with 43.4% of the vote for her and 32.5% for him. Although the President bends over backwards to maintain a pristine batting average, this is his seventh endorsee to go down this primary season, a higher total than for any other election held while he was in office.
On the Democratic-Farmer-Labor side, Sen. Amy Klobuchar easily dispatched her several challengers, hauling in nearly 90% of the vote. Klobuchar is popular, has won statewide four times previously, it's barely a swing state anymore, and there figure to be Democratic tailwinds this year. Add it up, and it's hard to see how Klobuchar does not get chosen as the successor to Gov. Tim Walz (DFL). Early polling has the Senator up about 10 points.
5. CT-01: This seat is D+12, so it's going to stay in Democratic hands. However, there was a "generational change" election here yesterday, with 78-year-old incumbent John Larson (D) gunning for a 14th term against three younger upstarts. The Representative is going to have plenty of time to wave his fist at clouds, and to shout at kids to get off his lawn, come January 3, because he was knocked off by 47-year-old former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. It is not often that a 13-term member gets primaried.
OK, those are the above-the-fold results. Here are the other outcomes that are of at least some interest:
Governor, Connecticut: Gov. Ned Lamont (D) would like to serve a third term, and he fended off Deputy Speaker of the Connecticut State House Josh Elliott (D), 67.9% to 32.1%, for the right to take a shot at it. On one hand, Lamont is fighting the odds, as only one person (Republican John G. Rowland) has won three times since the Constitution State switched to 4-year gubernatorial terms in 1950. On the other hand, Lamont's Republican opponent, state Sen. Ryan Fazio (who was unopposed yesterday), is also fighting the odds. No Republican has won a statewide election in Connecticut since 2006. We think Fazio's challenge is rather larger than Lamont's, and the handful of polls of the race agree; they put Lamont on top by anywhere from 7 to 20 points.
Governor, Vermont: This one's even less dramatic than the gubernatorial race in Connecticut. Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) wants a sixth 2-year term. He was unopposed yesterday, but found out that his opponent will be economist Amanda Janoo (D), who narrowly beat out businesswoman and activist Aly Richards, 49.1%. to 46.5%. Scott has only gotten stronger over time, and he won by a staggering 51 points in 2024, 73% to 22%. Though the Governor has been known to associate with shady characters, he will undoubtedly get the sixth term he seeks.
AL-02: This is the district that the Alabama legislature redrew, once they were given permission by the Supreme Court to do so. In so doing, AL-02 went from being a slightly blue district to being R+7. Rep. Shomari C. Figures (D), who faced no opponent yesterday, is going to fight for dear life to hold on to his job. He will do so against state Rep. Rhett Marques (R), who laid claim to 50% of the vote in a six-way race and who has Trump's endorsement. Marques is, naturally, very MAGA, and says he "wants to bring Alabama values to Washington."
CT-02: Though Connecticut's entire House delegation is Democratic, it does have two districts that are at least hypothetically swingy. The first of those is the D+4 CT-03, where Rep. Joe Courtney (D) was unopposed in his bid for a 10th term. He will face off against George Patrick Austin (R), who was also unopposed, and who owns a construction business. Austin wants to increase federal investment in infrastructure, housing, good jobs and the military, while also cutting taxes. We believe George H.W. Bush referred to that at "voo doo economics." Anyhow, when the GOP is looking for flips, it should look elsewhere.
CT-05: At D+3, this district is (theoretically) a shade bit swingier than CT-02. Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) was unopposed as she vies for a fifth term. She will square off against Chris Shea (R), who is yet another one of the Republican Party's seemingly infinite number of former-Navy-SEAL candidates. He says he is running "to protect American families, cut wasteful spending in Washington, lower the cost of living, reduce red tape, support law enforcement, and advance pro-worker, pro-business policies that put Connecticut citizens first." That all sounds good, but it's just empty talk without some specific ideas of how to achieve those things, and there is nary an actual policy proposal to be found on his website. This is another ostensibly swing district that isn't really a flip candidate, and the race raters have both CT-02 and CT-05 as "Solidly Democratic."
MN-02: Angie Craig left this D+3 seat behind to run (unsuccessfully) for the U.S. Senate. There was a three-way race to succeed her as the Democrat-Farmer-Laborers' nominee, and that race was won easily by former state Sen. Matt Little, who attracted 47.2% of the vote. This is another win for the progressive wing, as he's pretty lefty. However, it does not seem to get as much attention, from either the media or the GOP, when the progressive is white and male.
The Republican in the race is state Sen. Eric Pratt, who was unchallenged yesterday. He is a former football player, which is the GOP's backup plan when they can't find a Navy SEAL to run. He's also a businessman and banker, but he really wants you to focus on the football, so much so that his platform is called the "Platt Playbook," and is accompanied by diagrams that seem to involve four offensive players ganging up on two defenders, while also throwing an illegal forward pass:
Seems like cheating to us. Anyhow, the race raters expect Pratt to fall in November, and we would agree with that assessment.
WI-01: Like Connecticut, Wisconsin also has a couple of swingy House districts. Unlike Connecticut, Wisconsin's swing districts are current held by Republicans. In the R+2 WI-01, Rep. Bryan Steil (R) was unopposed, and will now face off against Mitchell Berman (D), who is a registered nurse. Berman has no platform to speak of, just platitudes, and while he's got a bunch of endorsements, none of them are from people you've ever heard of. He seems like a nice enough fellow, but not too likely to knock off an entrenched incumbent.
WI-03: Though this district is a little redder than WI-01, at R+3, it's more likely to flip. That is because the incumbent, who was unopposed yesterday, is Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who is obnoxious to the point that even many Republicans can't stand him. Think Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), except with a shaved head. He will square off against small business owner Rebecca Cooke (D), who easily won her primary with 60.5% of the vote. This is a rematch from 2024, when Van Orden defeated Cooke in a fairly close contest, 51.3% to 48.6%. The Representative has had 2 additional years since then to piss people, off, and 2026 is a much more favorable environment for the Democrats than 2024 was. So, this one figures to be a nail-biter.
Lieutenant Governor, Arizona: The careful reader will notice that Arizona does not appear in the list at the top of this item. That is because there was no election there yesterday. However, there was a candidate-related development that we thought we should pass along. This cycle, the state of Arizona will elect a joint governor-lieutenant governor ticket for the first time, thanks to the passage of Proposition 131 in the 2022 election. Previously, there was no lieutenant governor at all, and if the governorship came open, the office devolved on the state secretary of state.
Under the law, governor candidates get to decide who their running mates will be, and yesterday, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) made her pick. It is John Giles, who served as mayor of Mesa, AZ, for over a decade (2014-25), during which time he was a a Republican. He became an independent last year, and remains so now, because of the "extremists" who have taken over the GOP (to use his word). This seems like a pretty shrewd pick to us, especially since Hobbs is up against the crazypants Rep. Andy Biggs (R). Biggs' running mate, incidentally, is former state Sen. Sine Kerr (R), who isn't as crazypants as he is, but who is still pretty extreme. The latest poll of the race, from a few weeks ago, has Hobbs (and now Giles) up by 8, 52% to 44%.
That's the electoral news for now. Next week won't have quite as much excitement, though Florida will be interesting. Alaska and Wyoming, probably less so. (Z)