Aug.17

electoral-vote.com

Dem 50

Ties 1

GOP 49

More Primaries Tomorrow

Three states are holding primary elections tomorrow: Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming. Let's take a look:

• Alaska: There are primaries for both the Senate and governor tomorrow in the Last Frontier State. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) wants a third term, but 15 other people think that being a U.S. senator would be cool, so they filed. The top four in the all-party primary will advance to the ranked choice general election. This means that some random person who filed on a lark and who gets 50 votes in the primary, might end up on the general election ballot as a kind of consolation prize.
  
  Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) got down on his hands and knees and begged former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to run for the Senate, even though she would have had a much greater chance at winning if she had run for governor. Red states sometimes elect Democrats as governor (e.g., Kansas and Kentucky) and blue states sometimes elect Repblicans as governor (e.g., New Hampshire and Vermont). Peltola took one for the team and filed for the Senate. Better to be a small fish in a big pond than a big fish in a frozen pond, we suppose.
  
  Boy, have the rodents been reproducing in the short Alaska summer. Teacher Dan Sullivan filed to run, but the head of the Alaska Division of Elections, Carol Beecher (R), smelled a rodent and said Sullivan was a sham candidate. Sullivan said he was a serious candidate, running as a centrist Republican who is not MAGA. He appealed and the Alaska Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution has only three requirements for the Senate: (1) being 30, (2) being a resident of the state you are running in, and (3) being a U.S. citizen. It said anyone who meets all three, like Sullivan, can run. Beecher grudgingly put him on the ballot but listed the senator as "incumbent," something not normally done.
  
  But there is more. An unknown super PAC created a virtual office in Sarah Palin's home town of Wasilla and spent $770,000 to promote Green Party candidate Richard Grayson in a sneaky attempt to get lefty voters to vote for him instead of for the moderate Peltola. Another dark money group spent $240,000 to promote Democrat David Leslie. Two can tango, though. Another secret group spent $1.2 million supporting Alaskan Party candidate Earl Southworth and Republican Gerald Heikes in an attempt to dilute Sen. Sullivan's vote. Tomorrow, Sen. Sullivan, Peltola, and two others will qualify for the November ballot. Polls show Sullivan and Peltola basically tied in the general election.
  
  Rep. Nick Begich III (R-AK) is running for a second term in the House. Thirteen other people filed, We didn't know Alaska had so many people. Pastor Matt Schultz (D) entered the race but later withdrew and endorsed Bill Hill (I). He is the kinda, sorta, leading "Democrat," but upsetting Begich seems unlikely.
  
  Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R-AK) is term-limited and both parties are actively contesting the gubernatorial race. Twelve Republicans and two Democrats have filed. The Republican who has raised the most money is Matt Heilala, a member of the state medical board. Next is Alaska AG Treg Taylor. Third is the garbage candidate, Bernadette Wilson. We mean that literally; she owns a waste management company. The two Democrats are Tom Begich, former minority leader in the state Senate, and the uncle of Rep. Nick Begich III, and former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Begich has a famous name but Kreiss-Tomkins has the most money. This race is also a top-four primary. None of the candidates is over 20% in the polling, but with so many candidates splitting the vote, 15% could be enough to make it to the general election ballot.
  
  
• Florida: There is a hot race here in the Democratic senatorial primary. State Rep. Angie Nixon is running against Alex Vindman, who blew the whistle on Trump that led to his first impeachment. He is the brother of Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA). Nixon is very progressive, but does not have the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) or Rep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Nixon has been endorsed by Reps. Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN), Ayanna Pressley (D-MA), and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), though. Could Nixon be too far left for Sanders and AOC? The entire Democratic establishment is behind Vindman. Vindman has raised $15 million to Nixon's $625,000. Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) does not have any serious competition for the Republican nomination. Florida has become a red state, but appointed senators don't have a good track record winning on their own and in a very big blue wave, the guy who almost brought Trump down will turn out a lot of Democrats and might have a chance. Assuming he survives his primary, of course.
  
  Most of the House races are not very competitive due to the extensive gerrymandering. In the newly redrawn, FL-25 district, which Donald Trump would have won by 9 points, Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) is being challenged by left-wing activist and proud DSA member Oliver Larkin. So far this cycle, leftist insurgents have a mixed record, most notably winning a Senate primary in Michigan but losing a gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin. Larkin has also not been endorsed by Bernie Sanders or AOC. Larkin is strongly anti-Israel. A quarter of the district is Jewish. Larkin's views may not go over so well with them. Another quarter is Latino. We are not sure how Latinos (particularly Cubans) feel about Israel.
  
  Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is term limited, so there is an open-seat race for governor. Eleven Republicans have filed to run in on that side of the primary. The main contenders are Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (R-FL), Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (R), and investor, racist, white supremacist, antisemite and Christian Nationalist James Fishback. Donalds has been endorsed by Donald Trump and many others. Fishback has been endorsed by Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, Andrew Tate and Carrie Prejean. Donalds has raised $11 million. Collins is second at $1 million. Donalds is also 40+ points ahead of the others in the primary polling. If elected, Donalds would be the state's first Black governor.
  
  Democrats have no bench in Florida anymore. Six people have filed for the Democratic primary. The strongest one is former Rep. David Jolly, who used to be a Republican. He is crushing it in the Democratic primary polls. In the general election polls, Donalds is leading Jolly, but if enough bigots refused to be polled and vote for Jolly, the white guy, he could win in an upset. Still, people don't like turncoats. Charlie Crist discovered this the hard way in 2014 when the former Republican ran (and lost) as a Democrat. The main difference with Donalds is that Crist is white and Donalds is Black. There could be voters who are telling the pollsters they will vote for the Black Republican but on the secrecy of the polling booth will vote for the white former Republican, or won't vote at all.
  
  
• Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) is retiring so there is an open-seat election for the Senate. Wyoming's lone representative, Harriet Hageman (R-WY), is going for a promotion and will very likely get it. She has no serious primary competition. Former state Rep. James Byrd filed for the Democratic Senate nomination. He raised $19,575 and spent $18,476 so far. His only competition is a landscaper, Billy Benavidez. Hageman will crush Byrd in the general election by 40+ points.
  
  Hageman's seat in the House is being fought over by 10 Republicans and two Democrats, Three Republicans have raised serious money. They are Stephen Friess, son of Republican megadonor Foster Friess ($2.2M), businessman Reid Rasner ($2.0M) and Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray ($1.3M). Despite being behind moneywise, Gray is ahead in the polls. Former state Senate minority leader Lisa Kinney (D) will almost certainly win the right to be crushed in the general election.

Next week we have the Oklahoma runoff. In September, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Delaware wrap up the primaries. (V)