Dem
50
Ties
1
GOP
49
Many people think of rural America consisting almost entirely of conservative working-class white men and their wives. That's not as true as it once was. Below is a map showing all the counties in America:
The ones colored in pink are majority-minority counties right now. Together, they are 13% of all counties. More than half of these (55%) are rural, the vast majority of which (93%) have fewer than 50,000 residents. Demographers predict the entire country will be majority-minority by 2046. Many (white) Americans sense this, even if they don't know the exact date, and that is why they support Donald Trump despite his many flaws. He is doing his best to turn back the tide.
The demographic change is being driven by immigrants working at meatpacking plants in the Midwest, Latinos along the border, Black residents in the South, and Native Americans in Alaska, with young whites leaving these places for better economic opportunities in cities. As a result of this, the percentage of whites in many rural counties is dropping. In many cases the work of Father Time is also playing a role.
This rapid change is causing problems for local governments that are not used to this and can't deal with it—for example, people who don't speak English, schools that are not equipped to deal with this change, etc.
Some of the minority residents in rural areas are undocumented, but their U.S.-born children are U.S. citizens. Even the Supreme Court agrees now. That has obvious political implications in the long run. In the South, which is largely rural, immigration isn't the main driver. Demographics is doing the heavy lifting. Look at these two graphics.
On the left is the percentage of Black residents in every county. Clearly, the counties with the highest percentages are in the old Confederacy, a remnant of plantations full of enslaved Black workers. On the left is the median age of Americans, by race. Half of Black Americans are under 35 and half are over. For whites, the median age is 44. On the whole, Black Americans are 9 years younger. Many white Americans are largely past their prime childbearing years; Black Americans, not so much. These two graphics show that the percentage of Black people in the South is going to increase in the future. Virginia is already gone for the Republicans. Georgia and North Carolina are next. Deporting millions of Mexican immigrants isn't going to change that. There is nothing Donald Trump can do about that since most of the Black Southerners have been U.S. citizens for about six generations now, thanks to the Fourteenth Amendment that he and Stephen Miller hate so very much.
After the 2030 census, the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New York are projected to lose a total of four House seats and four electoral votes. California is projected to lose another four. Texas will gain four and Florida will gain three. To remain competitive in the 2032 presidential election, Democrats have to turn growing states like Arizona (+1), Georgia (+1), and North Carolina (+1) blue. With growing minority populations, that might be doable. Stuff changes. Remember how George W. Bush won Florida by 537 votes in 2000? (V)