Dem
50
Ties
1
GOP
49
Things just keep getting worse on the Iran front. There are at least three distinct issues that are clearly causing headaches for Donald Trump right now:
The Abraham Lincoln: When a war is going badly, you never know what incident or story will become a flashpoint, but it's a guarantee that one will eventually. With the Korean War, it was the endless bickering over trivial details of the peace process (should the table we negotiate at be square or round?). With the Vietnam War, it was the Tet Offensive. And with the Iran War, at least at the moment, it is the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln.
What has happened to the crew of that ship is shameful, though one day a historian will try to figure out why that story in particular caught fire. Because of the (alleged) attempted suicides? Because it's one of the mightiest ships in the fleet? Because it ironically bears the name of someone who actually knew how to prosecute a war? We have absolutely no doubt there are other sailors and soldiers out there in equally deplorable circumstances (for example, the various ships in the Lincoln's carrier group), but at the moment, it's that ship that is on everyone's lips.
The administration is trying to get the ship out of there as fast as it can, though rotating carrier groups is no small feat. In the interim, Trump & Co. are trying their best to downplay the reporting about the Lincoln. On Friday, Trump had the gall to declare that not only has the ship not been deployed too long, but that it hasn't been deployed long enough. He said that the story was "fake reporting" from CNN, despite the fact that it was actually broken by Natalie Oliverio of the Military Times. He and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth keep insisting that things are great onboard that ship, that the sailors have the best of everything, and they are living the high life. The families of the sailors are furious that the administration is downplaying their concerns and is effectively accusing them of lying. With the midterm election less than 3 months away, allow us to take this opportunity to remind everyone of how very much American voters love a politician or a political party that disrespects America's service members.
In case you are trying to figure out which side is telling the truth, the administration or the sailors' families, Adm. Brad Cooper, who leads the U.S. Central Command, paid an emergency visit to the Abraham Lincoln over the weekend to assess the situation. The Admiral's office then released a largely upbeat press release in which the sailors were thanked for their service. There is nary a word in there, however, pushing back against the claims that the ship has become a hell on water. Also, in our experience, flag officers do not make unscheduled, emergency visits to ships unless there is some very good reason for it.
The Memorandum of Understanding: Trump has declared victory, a great American triumph, an inevitable end to the war, blah, blah, blah so many times that we have stopped even bothering to mention the latest "breakthrough." Even much bigger media concerns barely even pay attention at this point. At best, the administration will sometimes get sign-off on some things from one interested party. However, it never comes close to reaching agreement with all of the key players, among them Israel, Iran, Lebanon/Hezbollah and Saudi Arabia. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in over their heads, and have made clear they have no business trying to negotiate a peace agreement.
The closest that the White House and its team have come to producing something of substance is the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which was signed on June 17, and which gave Iran and the U.S. a 2-month period to essentially cool off and to try to figure out a way forward that would lead to a permanent peace. The MoU ostensibly imposed a ceasefire, though it was really more like a less-fire, since both sides have been shooting at each other throughout most of the 60 days. And now, as of yesterday, the MoU has expired. So, the only slightly meaningful diplomatic breakthrough is no more, and the odds of a new breakthrough appear slim.
Iran's Plans: And that brings us to the next problem. It's unclear whether the leadership of Iran really ever wanted peace (or, if they did, for how long). Whatever the case might be, the Wall Street Journal was the first to report yesterday that the current thinking of the regime is that they want to drag this conflict out for as long as possible, and to inflict as much suffering on the U.S. and on the world as they can.
The Iranians' reasoning is... understandable, let's say. They are weary of being a punching bag for the U.S. and suspect, not unreasonably, that "peace" really just means "the U.S. and Israel and maybe Saudi Arabia have time to re-load for a larger and more devastating assault." The Iranians want to make the costs of this war so substantial that any president, PM, king or other leader who considers an attack in the future will think twice about whether it's worth it. It's also worth noting that Iran has already weathered the worst of the air assault, and has reason to believe that the air strikes will become fewer and further in between (due to lack of armaments), while a land invasion appears to be off the table.
What it boils down to, according to the WSJ, is that the conduct of the war has fallen into the hands of much more militant people than was previously the case, and their current mantra is "The main war has not even begun." That is a very scary thought.
We have spent this entire item, so far, talking about Iran. And yet, the headline is about Oman. They do both have four letters, ending in a-n, but that is not a typo. As everyone knows, when Trump starts to feel the heat, he lashes out. And that is what he did yesterday. Oman (sort of) borders the western side of the Strait of Hormuz, which it would like to see reopened. It has also been hit by several volleys from Iran. Oh and, like everyone else, they have no faith in Trump (or Kushner, or Witkoff). So, the Omanis have been conducting their own negotiations with Iran, so as to reopen the Strait to shipping traffic.
It is not entirely clear what the nature of the proposed agreement would be (should it even come to pass, which seems unlikely). However, when Trump got wind of it, he was furious. It could be that he thinks Oman will get the Strait opened to traffic from some nations, but not the U.S. Or, it could be that Oman is trying to get the Strait open for everyone, but Trump doesn't want that unless he gets the credit. Whichever it is, during a phone interview with Fox's Trey Yingst, the President decreed: "If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them."
So, in the span of 24 hours, Trump betrayed a commitment to one ally, in South Korea, and threatened to begin bombing another, in Oman. With "friends" like him, who needs enemies? Even if the leaders of these allied nations are (somewhat) willing to bide their time until normalcy returns to the White House, what do they do for the 2+ years between now and then? Flatter Trump and give him fake trophies and try to manipulate him, the way that Kim Jong-Un does? Work around the U.S. as best as is possible? Try to find people within the U.S. to work with on the down-low; people like Marco Rubio and Dan Caine? Whatever the approach, this is not good for global stability. And if ever a Russia or a China or a North Korea was going to take their shot, whatever that shot might be, sometime before Trump leaves office would be the time to do it. (Z)