Dem
51
Ties
1
GOP
48
Texas does not have term limits, so Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is running for a fourth term. No Texas governor has ever won four terms, although a few other states have had four-term governors. Texas is a red state and he might get it, but his biggest problem isn't his opponent, Gina Hinojosa (D), but electricity—and in two ways.
First is electricity-hungry data centers, especially in rural areas. People don't want them for several reasons, among which is the fear that they will hog all the power and drive up electricity prices. They also fear that building a data center in a rural county will change the nature of the county and their way of life by bringing in traffic, outsiders, and other interferences.
Second is the grid. Texas' electricity grid is notoriously fragile. Abbott has proposed spending $33 billion to provide enough transmission capacity for the data centers. People in rural counties don't want the state to spend $33 billion of their hard-earned tax money to provide a facility to make it possible to put in data centers they strongly oppose. Abbott is taking a lot of flak for the plan to spend so much state money for something people not only don't want but actively oppose. Shawn Nanny, a Republican county commissioner in West Texas, said the data centers and power lines are the "straws that broke the camel's back." He said that long-time conservatives are now thinking the unthinkable: voting for a Democrat. This is how badly they want to get rid of Abbott.
Texas hasn't elected a Democrat as governor in over 35 years, but the combination of a governor who is perceived as honest, but doing things people don't want, and a Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, who is perceived as an out-and-out corrupt politician of the worst kind, is a bad pairing for the GOP. This is extra impactful because Hinojosa has been a constant corruption watchdog in the Texas state House and U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico is about as non-woke as a Democrat can be. Distrust of both Republicans on top of the ticket and no active dislike for either of the top two Democrats might just do the trick in a blue wave.
Suzanne Bellsynder, who was one of Abbott's field directors in 2014, and who now runs the Texas Rural Reporter website said: "It feels like an attack on a culture, a way of life, because now I think rural Texas is feeling like 'Okay, now they want us, but don't want our culture—they want our resources.'" A recent article on the website is entitled: "We Like Our Rural Way of Life, Thank You Very Much." It rails against changes to rural areas the folks in Austin have dreamed up for them—without asking them for their opinion on the subject.
Every cycle, Democrats come up with a couple of strong candidates, raise truckloads of money, and still fall short. But maybe this time, with two unpopular Republicans and two popular Democrats on top of the ticket and an unpopular president and an affordability crisis, this might just be the time Democrats break the jinx. Maybe. Or maybe Lucy will pull that damn football away, once again. (V)