Dem
51
Ties
1
GOP
48
We wrote a fair bit about national elections this week, but we missed a local election that is worth a mention. State Rep. Stephenie Scialabba (R-PA) represented SD-12 in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from 2023-26. Earlier this year, she quit so she could return to the practice of law, leading to a special election for her (now former) seat in Butler County.
This is a pretty red seat. Scialabba won her reelection bid by 30 points and Donald Trump won the district by 19 points in 2024. It has not been represented by a Democrat in 3 decades. But that streak is now over, because Brandon Dukes (D) defeated Scott Timko (R) this week, 50.1% to 49.6%.
Obviously, the usual caveat about reading too much into a wonky special election, especially one with a very small electorate (around 17,000 voters cast a ballot), is in effect. That said, this is an enormous swing, and in a key state. If a district like this is flippable, then there aren't too many GOP-held U.S. House districts that aren't flippable. And do keep in mind that this is the latest entry in the Democrats wildly overperforming their 2024 numbers in local elections.
Further, even for those who pooh-pooh the predictive value of this election, it also has a practical implication. Had the election been won by the Republican, as expected, then the state House of Representatives would have been 102 D, 101 R, with one open seat, in a red district, waiting to be filled in a special election. So, the state House might have had to return to a power-sharing agreement, should the Republican have won that special election. But now, it does not matter; barring resignations or deaths, the Democrats will retain their majority through the rest of the term.
By the way, we have a sizable number of very good "Local Bytes" letters that we just haven't been able to get to for the past few weeks. Expect one entry, maybe two, next week. (Z)