There are no primary primaries tomorrow but there are two secondary primaries (runoffs) tomorrow.
One is in Oklahoma and the other is in South Carolina. They are very different. Let's look:
Oklahoma: Here, two Republicans—Oklahoma AG Gentner Drummond and former state
senator and financial adviser Mike Mazzei—are
facing off
for the Republican nomination for governor of Oklahoma. Normally, this kind of election would be fairly low profile,
since it doesn't matter much outside of Oklahoma which conservative Republican will crush state Rep. Cyndi Munson (D) to
become the next governor. From a certain perspective, conservative Republican politicians in Oklahoma are
sort of interchangeable.
Drummond is slightly less Trumpy than the very Trumpy and Trump-endorsed Mazzei. Given that Trump won every county in
Oklahoma in all three of his presidential runs, that should make Mazzei the favorite. But it may not. There is something
else bubbling up in this race that may be a harbinger of things to come nationally. Trump has promised a renaissance of
manufacturing jobs in the U.S. but completely failed to deliver the goods. In Oklahoma, he supports a plan (not his plan, someone else's plan) to build the
first new aluminum smelting plant in the U.S. in almost 50 years, in Inola, OK (pop. 1,890), which calls itself "The Hay
Capital of the World." The $4 billion plant is a project of Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum. The plan
envisions 1,000 permanent jobs in the factory making aluminum, which is an important strategic material.
Now here's the rub. The locals are strongly against the plant. They fear it will consume vast amounts of
electricity and water and its toxic emissions will pollute the surrounding air and groundwater. They also don't want
over 1,000 huge barges per year bringing aluminum oxide powder to the plant on the peaceful Verdigris River to be smelted, with the associated risks of
accidents and health concerns. Jobs or no jobs, they
don't want it.
A grassroots group has formed to
oppose
the smelter and protect the area. AG Drummond has noticed this opposition and filed a lawsuit to permanently block the
smelter. Mazzei supports the smelter. Cyndi Munson also opposes the plant, so Mazzei has taken to calling Drummond a RINO and a
liberal Democrat, just like Munson.
The two sides are using different "facts." Trump and Mazzei say this will be the cleanest and most modern smelter in the country.
However, "cleanest" doesn't mean "clean," just better than the other ones, which are very polluting. Further, the
172-page application for a
permit
and 163-page appendix tell a different story.
Seen this movie before? Some giant company wants to build a huge industrial installation in a rural area and the locals
don't want it? Yes, just replace "smelter" with "data center" and we've been there many times already. While data
centers don't emit toxic fluorides, sulfur dioxide and fine dust particles, they do use a lot of electricity and water,
like the smelter. In the "Would you prefer a data center or an aluminum smelter next door?" competition, the data center
wins on pollution (basically, none) but loses on job creation (also, basically none, except a few during construction).
If Drummond wins and exit polls or later polls show his opposition to the smelter was the reason he won, that sends a
message far and wide about the power of grassroots opposition to local politicians who want to give some big company a
tax break to entice management into building a big industrial complex the residents actively oppose.
As an aside, the race also will show the power of Trump's endorsement in a deep-red state he won overwhelmingly three
times. If Mazzei wins, despite the smelter issue, Trump's power as kingmaker is not diminished. And vice-versa—if
Trump's favorite loses, there is also a big message there.
South Carolina: Due to the unexpected death of Lindsey Graham, there is a highly
compressed primary in South Carolina to pick the Republican nominee for the Senate. Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) appointed
Graham's sister, Darline Graham (actually Darline Graham Nordone), to the vacancy until Jan. 3, 2027. A primary is being
held for the full term beginning Jan. 3, 2027. At Trump's urging, Graham filed as a candidate, despite her lack of
background or interest in politics. Friends say she was a loyal sister to Lindsey, but has little interest in being in
the limelight or politics. Now she has both—in spades.
In the special primary election on Aug. 11, Graham got 33% of the vote and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) came in
second at 25%, forcing tomorrow's runoff. Even without a calculator app at hand, you can probably figure out that 42% of
primary voters didn't like either of them, so what those folks do tomorrow will decide who gets to beat pediatrician Annie
Andrews (D) in November. Trump wants Graham for reasons that are not clear. No one really knows what she believes or
wants. She is 62 and could aim for another 20 years in the Senate, but that would require paying more attention to what
her constituents want than what Trump wants. After all, in 2032, when she is up again, Trump will be 86, if alive (also
86 if dead) and not in office.
Trump likes to
mock
people with disabilities. It is hard to imagine that someone who studied how to help people with disabilities in college
(she has a masters degree in rehabilitation counseling), and then had a career training blind people for jobs, is as
callous as Trump. She may not be a closet liberal, but she could turn out to be a normie Republican. Nevertheless, Trump
has been in South Carolina
stumping
for her. He told people at a rally in Myrtle Beach that they should regard him as being on the ballot and turn out for
Graham, otherwise the Democrats will impeach him. Of course, she is running for the Senate and impeachments are
the province of the House; the Senate's role is to hold a trial after an official has been impeached by the
House.
In a televised debate, Graham was asked about her position on Taiwan. She said she was "not that informed on national
security" and "national security is not my thing." That was very much her brother's thing, but she was not her brother's
keeper. Many Republicans
slammed her
for that response. Graham's answer was a bit inartful. She could have said: "Look, I have been in the Senate only 2
weeks and I haven't mastered all public policy issues yet. Besides, I am not on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
so foreign affairs is not my primary responsibility. I am on the Environment Committee and my focus is protecting South
Carolina's beautiful environment." Or something like that. Here is the clip from the debate:
Norman is
arguing
that the Senate is not an entry-level job and as a five-term member of the House, he has the experience needed to be a
good senator. Between Graham's debate stumble and complete lack of experience and interest in politics, even Trump's
endorsement might not be enough to get her the nomination. As we noted last week, Trump's choice for governor of Wyoming
lost. So did his choice for governor of Minnesota, Mike "MyPillow" Lindell. If Graham gets the nomination, the
inexperience argument will go away since Andrews is a doctor and also has no experience in politics.
South Carolina is a deep-red state and if Graham wins the primary, she will be the favorite against Andrews. The one
thing that could possibly trip her up is a resurgence of the huge
measles epidemic
that hit South Carolina last year, largely due to the increasing number of children who are not vaccinated. If measles
was to come back, Andrews could make the pitch that we need more doctors in the Senate to guide public health policy.
With a bit of study, Graham could come back with: "Rand Paul (R-KY) is an ophthalmologist, Bill Cassidy (R-LA) is a
gastroenterologist, John Barrasso (R-WY) is an orthopedic surgeon, and Roger Marshall (R-KS) is a gynecologist. What
good has that done us?"
So both races are interesting, albeit in very different ways. Come back Wednesday for an analysis
of the results. (V)
This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news,
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