Dem
51
Ties
1
GOP
48
To distract from the Epstein files, Trump bombed Iran. To distract from the Iran war, which is going very badly, Trump de facto started a (trade) war with Canada. That is going to have bad consequences for the U.S. economy, so Trump will probably look for another distraction, possibly invading Cuba, if this one doesn't end soon. If that doesn't go well, the next distraction is [fill in the blank].
The "war" with Canada began because Trump was miffed that Canada had no interest in becoming the 51st state. Canada could have one-upped him by saying: "We'd love to become part of the U.S. but only if each of the 10 provinces and 3 territories becomes a separate state, each with two senators, and the appropriate number of representatives [about 70 in all]." The 26-member Canadian bloc would then control the Senate, making it a de facto hostile takeover of the U.S. by Canada. But Canadian P.M. Mark Carney was too polite to suggest that. Trump then said Canada wants the benefits of being a state without being one.
There were news stories about how a deal was almost in hand, then it all fell apart. The reason is that Trump used an old trick in the negotiations he has used for decades. He agrees in principle to some deal. Then, at the very last minute, he demands some new and very large concession. In most cases in the past, the other side, which wanted the deal (say a contract to supply something to his hotels) grudgingly accepted the new conditions. He tried that with Carney and Carney refused, saying he wasn't going to sign a contract where Trump's signature was done with a pencil. The last-minute requirement that was unacceptable to Carney is that Canada not make trade deals with other countries. That would essentially end Canada's run as a sovereign nation. Instead, Carney imposed reciprocal 50% tariffs on American exports to Canada to match the 50% tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. The trade war is now on.
Carney is pretty much the only national leader that has called Trump's bluff and is willing to accept some tariff pain rather than knuckle under to Trump's pressure. This will make him a hero in Canada, even with people who don't especially like his party. Carney has long said that middle powers must stand up to the largest powers (the U.S., China, and Russia) or be mangled by them. He meant it and is setting a good example for others.
Among the Canadian exports now subject to the new 50% tariffs are alcoholic beverages, hockey sticks, some dairy products, motorcycles, clothing, essential oils, construction materials, and dog muzzles. If you want to get down in the weeds, some of the items tariffed are a bit bizarre, like item 0511.99.33 "Horsehair and horsehair waste, whether or not put up as a layer with or without supporting material." Also 0604.90.10: "Mosses and lichens." One has to wonder how the list was made. Did some U.S. horsehair baron buy a batch of Trump crypto and then get competing Canadian horsehair tariffed? Does the U.S. even have horsehair barons? Who knows? Carney said that the tariffs on American products would include steel, dairy products, appliances, agricultural equipment, paper, and electronics. He said he was doing this reluctantly.
Democrats are going to have a field day with this. Tariffs will make Canadian products 50% more expensive in the U.S. The market for dog muzzles is pretty small, since dog owners don't buy new muzzles that often. However, some types of lumber will be tariffed, including 36 kinds of plywood. Democrats are going to say: "Trump's tariffs will raise the cost of new home construction considerably, driving all housing prices up and making housing even more expensive than it already is. Prices aren't going up due to some obscure market forces. They are going up due to the actions of Donald Trump, who doesn't care about your housing costs." As a political move, doing things that visibly raise prices 2½ months before crucial elections where affordability will be front and center strikes us as, er, odd. (V)