Dem
51
Ties
1
GOP
48
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has been spending a fair bit of time in Iowa recently, ostensibly to campaign for Republicans running for reelection, such as Rep. Zach Nunn. Of course, anyone reading this site knows that if a person keeps traveling to Iowa to "support" other candidates' campaigns (particularly if the person somehow doesn't find time to visit non-early-primary states), it's a sign of a budding presidential campaign. And reporters with sources inside the Pentagon have confirmed that Hegseth is pondering the idea.
This certainly tracks, since Hegseth might well have the second-biggest ego in Washington, DC—which is really saying something. That said, if he really wants to take a shot at it, he'll have to play his cards very, very close to the vest. Sitting secretaries of defense do not generally run for president, because that blurs the line between military power and civilian power a bit too much for many voters. More importantly, from Hegseth's perspective, is that you don't make a move in MAGA world without permission from the King of MAGA. Right now, Donald Trump is flogging either J.D. Vance and/or Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his preferred 2028 candidate, depending on his whims at any particular moment. If Hegseth "runs" without permission, too obviously and too early, he could not only cause Trump to dis-endorse his campaign, he could also end up fired from his current job.
MediaMatters, which follows this particular subject pretty closely, published a piece headlined: "Take a Pete Hegseth presidential bid seriously." Their argument in brief is that, as a former right-wing media personality, he is much more attuned to what they call "the right-wing media's id" than is his competition:
Hegseth, a bombastic former Fox News weekend host who spent years speaking directly to the Republican base through that MAGA propaganda network, may be uniquely attuned to the right's attention economy. He could become the presidential candidate of the right-wing media's id, running a furious culture war campaign fixated on domestic political enemies that checks all the boxes for authoritarian-minded pundits indifferent to traditional policy issues.
The site lists some of the ways in which Hegseth is "right" on the issues, as far as the Foxes and Newsmaxes of the world are concerned, including that he is anti-Muslim, anti-DEI, anti-press, anti-immigrant and pro-Christian nationalism.
We agree with MediaMatters' assessment, though our reasoning is a shade bit different. The Republican field is going to be very crowded in 2028, and a candidate who has a clear "brand" and a clear base is going to have an advantage. We kinda know what Vance's brand is (hillbilly-turned-populist), but we don't know what his base is, other than Peter Thiel. We don't know what Rubio's brand is or what his base is, other than Cuban voters in Florida. But Hegseth is the absolute embodiment of "bro" culture and of toxic masculinity, and those are big selling points for a big chunk of the current Republican base.
Also, keep in mind that the GOP, unlike the Democrats, tends to prefer winner-take-all primaries. So, if a candidate can attract 25%, maybe 30% of the primary vote early on, that is enough to build a huge lead. In fact, that's basically what Donald Trump did in 2016. He wasn't winning majorities in the early primaries, but he WAS winning pluralities, and that's all it takes on that side of the contest. And as much as Trump cares about anointing a successor, he cares even more about betting on the winning horse. So, if Hegseth somehow catches fire, it would not be out of character for Trump to endorse him and behave as if Hegseth is the guy he wanted all along.
It's a long time until 2028, and there are a lot of wildcards here, but it's a possibility at least worth keeping an eye on (if, for no other reason, because presidential ambitions will drive Hegseth's behavior, and his search for new stunts to pull, in his current job). And if Hegseth does somehow get the nod, the Republicans will be set up for a disaster of potentially epic proportions. A fanatical vote counts just as much as a blasé one, and these candidates that have a base of hardcore support, but turn everyone else off, tend to do very poorly in presidential elections. Think William Jennings Bryan, Barry Goldwater, George McGovern, etc.
If Hegseth actually gets the Republican nomination, we might possibly have a very interesting matchup that is part campaign and part personal vendetta. One of the people Hegseth has been bugging a lot is Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). Kelly is a highly decorated naval aviator and astronaut who represents a key swing state in the Senate. He is also loudly anti-Hegseth and anti-Trump. If he runs for president, he has a realistic chance of getting the Democratic nomination. Democrats want a fighter and he has been a fighter his entire adult life. In a Kelly-Hegseth battle, boy would the sparks fly. The debates would rival the UFC fight on the White House lawn. (Z)