Dem
52
Ties
1
GOP
47
Usually when we talk about problems in border states, we mean California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Not now. This time we mean Montana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio (which has a water border with Canada across Lake Erie), New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The northern border is much longer than the southern border and there are many more elections in states along it than in states along the southern border. Donald Trump's trade war with Canada is threatening Republican candidates in many of those states.
The problem with the trade war is twofold. First, it is making many imports that Americans and U.S. companies have long depended on 50% more expensive. In some cases for businesses, that price increase makes the products they sell no longer competitive. Second, many U.S. exports to Canada are also 50% more expensive and Canadians are not buying them, hurting the U.S. companies and stores that sell them.
This puts Republican candidates in states and districts near the border in a bind. The Democrat in the race will be attacking the Republicans from sunrise to midnight for not reining Trump in and saying we need a Democratic Congress that will simply say: "NO!" to him and stop him. What's a Republican to do? Agree and say Trump was wrong to start the trade war? In nearly all cases that will bring down Trump's wrath on the candidate. Defend the trade war? That will anger the voters who are being hurt by it. There is no good solution.
A very few candidates, like Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), have de facto special permission to oppose the trade war and she can even vote against it if need be—as long as her vote doesn't matter. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) understands her situation very well and will explain it to Trump if he has to. But for the substantial number of other Republicans in northern border states, there is no permission note.
Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan-based Republican strategist, said: "This escalation and the timing of it are problematic. It really undermines our messaging when we're trying to address affordability and we're already having to deal with the price of oil due to the war in Iran." For Democrats in the border states, it is a no-brainer to say: "Prices are already sky high and instead of trying to lower them, Trump is intentionally driving them even higher. We need a Democratic Congress that will rein him in."
There are two important Senate races where the trade war is becoming a major issue: Michigan and Ohio. Neither Republican candidate Mike Rogers nor Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) wants to defend the policy, but they have to. Michigan and Ohio have more trade with Canada than any other states, so the effect is the greatest in two states with critical toss-up Senate races. In particular, the auto industry is tightly integrated across the border, with many parts going back and forth. Disturbing that flow has a major impact on the industry.
J.D. Vance is trying to help by traveling around the northern states saying that all the administration wants is fair trade. Of course, he doesn't mention that the item that killed the deal is Canada's refusal to give up its national sovereignty and agree to not make trade deals with other countries as Trump demanded. (V)