Dem
52
Ties
1
GOP
47
One of the themes in the Democratic primaries this year has been DSA candidates vs. more centrist candidates. However, another theme, somewhat, but not entirely related, is youth vs. age. In some cases they overlap, when a younger DSA candidate challenges an older centrist. If the younger candidate wins, was it due to age or ideology? In NY-13, Darializa Chevalier beat Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY). She is 32. He is 71. Did she win because she is a lefty or because he is too old? Hard to say.
An interesting test would be a young centrist vs. an old progressive. Then we would know which factor is dominant. Fortunately, Massachusetts has arranged this experiment for us tomorrow. A young (47) centrist representative, Seth Moulton (D-MA). is challenging the elderly (80) but very progressive Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA). Markey co-authored the Green New Deal with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Markey often works closely with the very progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and also with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). All three of them have endorsed Markey. This is the test we were looking for. Wednesday we will have an answer.
Markey isn't just old, he is already the oldest senator Massachusetts has ever had in its long history. He was in Congress before Moulton was even born. He's probably going to die in Congress. Markey makes no apologies. He doesn't create photo-ops with him doing pushups, lifting weights or doing the 100-yard dash. His argument is that he is a battle-hardened veteran who can get things done. He also notes that if the Democrats capture the Senate, he will be chairman of the HELP subcommittee that deals with retirement security, something the old folks will appreciate.
Moulton has been endorsed by the Boston Globe. The campaign said: "The Globe made clear that Seth brings the proven leadership and progressive vision needed to tackle the affordability crisis, concluding that the future must be now.' Proven leadership? Against a guy who has been in Congress since before Moulton was born? Hardly. The Globe simply said although Markey looks sharp and sounds sharp, it is time for a new generation of leaders. Nothing wrong with him. He's just too old. Polls indicate that the Globe is wrong. In a new University of Massachusetts Amherst poll, Markey is leading 60% to 32%. But after the polling mishaps in Michigan and Wisconsin, you never know (although both of those races may have changed a lot in the final days due to external factors that moved public opinion, something not present here).
There is no Senate primary on the Republican side. Attorney, author and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton was the only person who filed. He will "win" the primary handily and then lose the general election almost as handily.
In all the House districts but one, the Democratic incumbent is running and will get the nomination and be reelected. The one exception is MA-06, which is open due to Moulton running for the Senate. Six Democrats have filed for the D+11 district covering Lynn and Salem. Whoever wins the primary will trounce Micah Jones, the only Republican who filed, in November.
In the gubernatorial race, Gov. Maura Healey (D-MA) wants another term and will probably get it. She has no primary challengers. The Republican primary has two entrants: Army veteran and businessman Michael Minogue and Marine Corps veteran and businessman Brian Shortsleeve. Army guys will go for Minogue and Marine Corps guys will go for Shortsleeve. Running for governor of Massachusetts as a Republican is not pointless, despite the blueness of the state. Republicans were elected governor in 2018, 2014, 2002, 1998, 1994, and 1990. This probably isn't the year for a Republican, though, and running against an incumbent doesn't make it any easier. (V)