Dem
52
Ties
1
GOP
47
The race for governor of Alaska has gotten simpler—at least compared to what is was. There was an all-party jungle primary, with the top four finishers moving on to a ranked choice general election on Nov. 3. Here are the top four from the primary:
Now the top four has become a top three, because former State Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich (D) has dropped out. He ran out of money. That is usually why candidates for office drop out. On his way out the door, he endorsed former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D).
In a ranked-choice election, if Begich had stayed in and been eliminated on the second round, many of his votes might have gone to Kreiss-Tomkins anyway, but not all. Some people don't mark a second choice on the ballot, which results in exhaustion (the ballot's, not the voter's). But there is a more important reason Begich dropped out. Instead of competing for the same donors and same resources, Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich can work together. Possibly Kreiss-Tomkins offered Begich a post in his administration if he wins, like secretary of sled dogs, a very important job in snowy Alaska.
It is also possible that the Democratic Governors' Association will now jump in since there is only one Democrat left. With two candidates, they probably didn't want to take sides. Now that is not a problem.
The result of Begich's decision to take one for the team means that JKT might actually have a chance. Dave Bronson is somewhat normal Republican and the former mayor of Anchorage. Bernadette Wilson is a sub-zero version of Marjorie Taylor Greene. She is the garbage candidate—she owns a waste management company. Correctly disposing of frozen moose poop requires special skills and equipment.
A lot is riding on who is eliminated on the first round. If Wilson just edges out Bronson again (which could happen if Donald Trump endorses her), then round two will be JKT against Wilson. Alaska is red, but it is not that red (R+6). Alaskans tend to be more libertarian than MAGA, and some Bronson supporters might prefer the somewhat bland JKT over the loony Wilson and might mark him as their second choice. If there are enough of them, in a blue wave, that might be enough to push JKT over the top. Alaskans do occasionally pick governors who are not Republicans, like Wally Hickel (I) in 1990, Tony Knowles (D) in 1994 and Bill Walker (I) in 2014.
Of course, Trump could pull a surprise that would upend the election by giving Alaska back to Russia in exchange for permission to build Trump Tower Moscow. (V)