Dem
47
GOP
53
While the midterms are still almost a year away, some folks are already working on the 2028 elections. All of the potential candidates, of course, but also some state parties. In particular, the fight about the order of the primaries is heating up. The problem is the media, which uses the results of the first primary, normally in extremely unrepresentative New Hampshire, to declare a one or two candidates "front runners" and a bunch of others as hopeless losers. Actually, the winner is the favorite of relatively affluent white Boston exurbanites and some crusty white Yankees up north.
The jockeying for position has started already. Each party is free to announce what it wants, of course, but primaries are run by (and paid for by) the states. Caucuses are run by (and paid for by) the parties. Traditionally four small states, one in each region of the country, go before Super Tuesday in early March. This has the advantage of letting unknown candidates become known by simply meeting all the voters. That is impossible in a state like Texas or California.
A major Latino group, Latino Victory, is making a big push to have Nevada go first. The state has a number of advantages. First, It has a low population (3.2 million), so a candidate can meet a nontrivial fraction of them personally in a year of campaigning. Second, practically all the people live in two counties, Clark (2.5 million) and Washoe (520,000), so a candidate need not travel much. Third, it is much more mixed ethnically than New Hampshire, with 51% non-Latino white, 29% Latino, 14% multiracial, 11% non-Latino Black, and 11% Asian. Fourth, it is a working-class state, with many people employed in service industries and mining. It also houses the world's biggest factory, Tesla's gigafactory, which covers an area larger than 100 football fields in Sparks, NV, just east of Reno. If Nevada gets the nod and goes first, Latino candidates, such as Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), a Latino from a neighboring state, is sure to benefit.
Two other states are fighting hard to go first. New Hampshire has a state law saying it most hold the first primary. The secretary of state has the authority to set the date to make sure this happens. Former NH SoS Bill Gardner once said he would hold the primary on Halloween of the previous year if he had to in order to go first. Of course, if some other state(s) passed a similar law, then what?
South Carolina also wants to go first. It also has a distinctive ethnic mix, with about 60% of Democratic voters being Black. That gives a Black candidate a huge leg up, which may be actually be a disadvantage for the Party since that result may not be reproducible in other states in the general election. Also most Black voters, especially women, don't need much urging to get them to vote Democratic, whereas Latinos are more up for grabs and a Latino candidate could help. (V)