Dem
47
GOP
53
As of yesterday, the federal government has an actual budget. At least, most of it does. After Donald Trump got on the phone to whip votes, the House passed the compromise measure that had already cleared the Senate. The initial vote, to bring the bill to the floor of the House, was literally as close as it could be without failing. The Democrats all voted "no," and so did Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and John Rose (R-TN). Had it remained that way, the vote would have been 216-216, and the bill would not have come to the floor. But eventually Rose was persuaded to flip, and so the final tally was 217 "yea," 215 "nay."
The actual vote was party-line-ish, but nowhere near as much as the procedural vote. Most Democrats voted against the legislation, but 21 of them crossed the aisle to vote with the Republicans. Most Republicans voted for the legislation, but 21 of them crossed the aisle to vote with the Democrats. One member (Dan Crenshaw, R-TX) did not vote, so the final vote on the actual bill was 217-214-1. The Democrats who voted for the bill were mostly, but not entirely, Blue Dogs. The Republicans who voted against the bill were mostly, but not entirely, budget hawks. Once the House had taken care of business, the bill was hustled down Pennsylvania Avenue, for Donald Trump to append his signature before he could change his mind.
And now the fun begins. With the rest of the government funded, 100% of everyone's attention (the politicians, the punditry, the media, etc.) will turn to DHS, which will only be funded for 2 weeks unless something is worked out. The Democrats think they have leverage, and want to impose some significant restraints on ICE. The Republicans think THEY have leverage, and want to ram through the SAVE Act, which would make it mandatory to provide proof of citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.
We think that at least one of them is right about having leverage. Let's run down the key findings from some recent polls about ICE:
Different pollsters ask slightly different questions in slightly different ways, which is why we can't put this into a nice, tidy table. That said, it's clear that about 60% of Americans think ICE needs to be reined in, as compared to maybe a third who think it does not. That's close to a 2-to-1 advantage for the Democrats' position. And the crosstabs make clear that it's closer to 4-to-1 among Democrats, and 3-to-1 among independents. The anti-ICE sentiment is strong. And the sentiment for fixing some of ICE's worst abuses is even stronger. On the other hand, we don't understand where Republicans are getting the idea that this is their chance to push the SAVE Act.
Rarely does a political party, particularly a political party that controls none of the trifecta, find itself in the position that the Democrats find themselves in now. They know their base wants strong action, both generally, and in terms of ICE/DHS specifically. They know that many members of that same base felt the Party caved in the last shutdown. Public sentiment, across the "reachable" political spectrum, is on the Democrats' side about as strongly as is possible in this polarized environment. And the Party is in something close to a win-win situation. If the blue team's demands are met, they win. If the blue team's demands are not met, and they dig in, then DHS shuts down for a while (maybe a long while), and they win.
And now, we wait to see what Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and the rest of the Democrats do with the hand they've been dealt. If they blow this, even with all the advantages they've got going for them, we may have to start calling them the DeMcClellans. Oh, and if ever there was a time to contact your elected representatives in Congress, even if they are the same party as you, this is it. (Z)