Dem
47
GOP
53
Last week's special election in Texas state Senate district SD-9 in and around Fort Worth is giving Republicans up and down the line the heebie-jeebies. On Saturday, a relatively unknown Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, won the district by 14.4 points. In 2022, Kelly Hancock (R) won by 20 points. In 2024, Donald Trump won the district by 17 points. No Democrat has won the district in more than 30 years. Shifts of 34 and 32 points tend to get noticed.
The general freakout is largely due to the district's large Latino population. This could be a harbinger of trouble ahead for Republicans with Latinos. Maybe they don't like the idea of masked government thugs arresting anyone who looks like a Latino and sending them off to "detention centers."
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who represents TX-23, a rural majority Latino district that runs for 550 miles along the Mexican border from just east of El Paso almost to Laredo, said: "It should be an eye-opener to all of us that we all need to pick up the pace." Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said the election was a "very concerning outcome." Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R-TX) tweeted that the results are a "wake-up call for Republicans across Texas. Our voters cannot take anything for granted." Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) said: "a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed." Texas GOP consultant Brendan Steinhauser said: "That imagery coming out of Minnesota in the last few days has had a huge impact on not only Hispanic voters, but swing voters, independents in Texas and around the country."
Democrats were giddy. Tory Gavito, president of the Democratic donor network Way to Win said she received excited texts from major donors all weekend. She knows, and the Republicans know, that Latinos are the largest ethnic group in Texas, making up 40% of the population. Nationally, Latinos represent 20% of the U.S. population. If they swing heavily to the Democrats in November, there goes the House. Here are the 10 states with the largest percentage of Latinos (data from 2023):
| State | Pct. Latino |
| New Mexico | 48.15% |
| California | 39.83% |
| Texas | 39.46% |
| Arizona | 31.04% |
| Nevada | 29.20% |
| Florida | 26.75% |
| Colorado | 22.22% |
| New Jersey | 21.94% |
| New York | 19.62% |
| Illinois | 18.50% |
There are Senate races in Texas, Florida, Colorado, and Illinois in 2026. There are also races for governor in 2026 in every one of these states except New Jersey, which had one in 2025, in which Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) won in large part due to a massive swing of Latino voters. A big swing among Latino voters could heavily impact all these statewide races.
There are also 38 congressional districts that are majority-Latino. Here they are:
| District | PVI | Incumbent | Pct. Latino |
| TX-34 | EVEN | Vicente Gonzalez (D) | 88.5% |
| TX-16 | D+11 | Veronica Escobar (D) | 80.8% |
| TX-15 | R+7 | Monica De La Cruz (R) | 78.9% |
| FL-27 | R+6 | Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | 74.2% |
| FL-28 | R+10 | Carlos Giminez (R) | 73.4% |
| FL-26 | R+16 | Mario Diaz-Balart (R) | 73.2% |
| TX-28 | R+2 | Henry Cuellar (D) | 72.9% |
| TX-29 | D+12 | Sylvia Garcia (D) | 72.4% |
| CA-22 | R+1 | David Valadao (R) | 69.3% |
| TX-20 | D+12 | Joaquin Castro (D) | 68.2% |
| IL-04 | D+17 | Jesus Garcia (D) | 63.2% |
| CA-34 | D+28 | Jimmy Gomez (D) | 61.6% |
| CA-35 | D+8 | Norma Torres (D) | 61.2% |
| CA-46 | D+11 | Lou Correa (D) | 61.2% |
| CA-29 | D+20 | Luz Rivas (D) | 61.1% |
| CA-42 | D+18 | Robert Garcia (D) | 61.1% |
| CA-18 | D+17 | Zoe Lofgren (D) | 60.8% |
| CA-21 | D+4 | Jim Costa (D) | 60.7% |
| CA-13 | R+1 | Adam Gray (D) | 60.7% |
| CA-25 | D+3 | Raul Ruiz (D) | 60.4% |
| TX-23 | R+7 | Tony Gonzales (R) | 60.0% |
| CA-33 | D+7 | Pete Aguilar (D) | 58.7% |
| CA-39 | D+7 | Mark Takano (D) | 58.5% |
| CA-38 | D+10 | Linda Sanchez (D) | 58.3% |
| AZ-03 | D+22 | Yassamin Ansari (D) | 58.2% |
| CA-44 | D+19 | Nanette Barragan (D) | 57.9% |
| CA-31 | D+10 | Gil Cisneros (D) | 57.4% |
| CA-52 | D+13 | Juan Vargas (D) | 57.2% |
| NM-02 | EVEN | Gabe Vasquez (D) | 56.1% |
| AZ-07 | D+13 | Adeltita Grijalva (D) | 55.5% |
| TX-33 | D+19 | Marc Veasey (D) | 54.5% |
| CA-43 | D+27 | Maxine Waters (D) | 54.1% |
| TX-35 | D+19 | Greg Casar (D) | 51.3% |
| NY-15 | D+27 | Ritchie Torres (D) | 51.1% |
| NY-14 | D+19 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) | 50.5% |
| NY-13 | D+32 | Adriano Espaillat (D) | 50.4% |
| CA-37 | D+33 | Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D) | 50.3% |
| FL-09 | D+4 | Darren Soto (D) | 50.0% |
Thirty-two of the districts already have a Democrat in the House, but six have a Republican representative. If Latinos really turn against the Republicans, at least four of these will be in play; all except the two very deep red districts in Florida. This means the Democrats have four potential pickups in November in these districts. In addition, there are eight other districts where Latinos have a plurality, but not a majority. Only one of these has a Republican representative, Rep. Michael Cloud (R) in TX-27. This Corpus Christi district is R+14, so it is not a battleground, but if Latinos really want to send a message, maybe it could become competitive. (V)