Dem
47
GOP
53
Money is important in politics, but it isn't everything. A new analysis by election forecaster Nathan Gonzales shows that while money can help an incumbent, when there is a wave by the other party, money can't pave over the angry voters. Gonzales looked at three recent wave elections: 2006, 2010, and 2018.
In 2006, the Democrats picked up 31 seats. In this election, 22 incumbent House Republicans running for reelection were swept out to sea. All but three outspent their Democratic opponents. Some Democrats overcame massive spending disparities and still won. These include Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX), who spent only 26% of what his opponent did, Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), who spent only 27% of what her opponent did, and Heath Shuler (D-NC), who spent only 41% of what the Republican incumbent spent.
2010 was a blow-out for Republicans. Fifty-two House Democrats lost their seats, even though 43 of them outspent their Republican challenger. In some cases, though, the Republican's spending margin wasn't all that great. For example, Steven Palazzo (R-MS), Steve Chabot (R-OH), Steve Stivers (R-OH), Kristi Noem (R-SD) and Francisco Canseco (R-TX) spent only 10% more than the Democratic incumbent. However, eight Republicans spent only a third of what the incumbent spent and won anyway. When the voters want change, money doesn't go all that far.
2018 was a blow-out for the Democrats. They flipped 41 seats, including 30 incumbents running for reelection. Of the 30 losers, 23 were beaten by someone who spent more money. Having a president Democrats hated made it easy for challengers to raise lots of money, so they had the political wind at their back AND more money. Good combination if you can get it.
This year, the wind is at the Democrats' back, but the Republicans have already raised boatloads of money. That may not matter so much because the number of competitive districts is so small now. At some point, in any district, you hit the point of diminishing returns. If a voter sees a nasty negative Republican ad 15 times per evening and the Democratic ad only 5 times, that doesn't necessarily make the voter 3x more likely to vote Republican. And Democrats need to flip a net of only three seats to get control. However, there are two question marks still: Will Florida draw a new map and when will the Supreme Court kill the VRA altogether? (V)