Dem
47
GOP
53
Although the House Republicans generally have little interest in legislating, they do plan to push one bill very hard this week. It is the SAVE America Act, which tightens federal voter registration standards. In particular, it requires voters to show proof of citizenship in order to register to vote. If enacted, people wishing to vote would need to show a valid U.S. passport or original birth certificate. Many people, especially poor people (who skew Democratic) have neither of these and thus would be disenfranchised. Likewise, millions of women whose married name differs from the name on their birth certificate or passport would face extra steps just to make their voices heard. From the Republicans' point of view, this is a feature, not a bug.
In addition, the bill curtails mail-in voting and requires photo ID to vote in every state. There are also other provisions to make voting more onerous.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will probably bring it up for a vote this week—if a nose count shows 217 "yeas." The House is currently 218R, 214D, so two defections will be fatal. If the votes are not there, Johnson might just skip the vote. On the other hand, Donald Trump very much wants the bill passed, so Johnson might bring it to a vote even if the votes aren't there, so as to deflect the blame for it not passing from himself to the Republican defectors.
Democrats are wildly against the bill. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) recently said: "If you're one of the tens of millions of U.S. citizens who does not have access to your birth certificate, or if you're one of the 50 percent of Americans who don't have a passport, the SAVE Act could make it impossible for you to participate in elections." That's the idea, of course.
If the bill passes the House, Democrats will try to filibuster it in the Senate. Some Senate Republicans want to require an actual Jimmy-Stewart-style filibuster. Democrats tend not to read the Bible in these things, but could find something else interesting to read. Shakespeare's King Lear is about a mad king who gives his kingdom to his two treacherous daughters who flatter him all the time and banishes the one who speaks the truth to him. That might do. It is very unlikely Democrats would give up without a fight and a true showdown might go on for weeks, with other Democrats reading Macbeth, Hamlet, and everything else Shakespeare wrote, and then some. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has not said what he will do in the event the House passes the bill. He is no doubt secretly hoping the votes aren't there in the House, which gets him off the spot. (V)