Dem
47
GOP
53
Axios has produced a model that shows which House seats will flip depending on how well each party does based on the new maps (excluding Virginia, Florida, and what Southern states might do if the Supreme Court kills the Voting Rights Act). The baseline is how well Kamala Harris performed in 2024. If Democratic House candidates do as well as Harris (who, remember, lost the popular vote), the new House will be 207D, 228R, greatly expanding Republicans' control of the lower chamber. It would take Democrats overperforming Harris by 3 points for the Democrats to get a majority (of 1 seat). Here are the numbers for different election scenarios from R+7 to D+7 relative to the 2024 election:
| Delta | Dem | GOP | Diff |
| -6 | 175 | 261 | -86 |
| -5 | 186 | 249 | -63 |
| -4 | 189 | 246 | -57 |
| -3 | 195 | 250 | -45 |
| -2 | 198 | 237 | -39 |
| -1 | 203 | 232 | -29 |
| 0 | 207 | 228 | -21 |
| 1 | 210 | 225 | -15 |
| 2 | 216 | 219 | -3 |
| 3 | 218 | 217 | 1 |
| 4 | 221 | 214 | 7 |
| 5 | 225 | 210 | 15 |
| 6 | 227 | 208 | 19 |
| 7 | 228 | 207 | 21 |
For example, if the Democrats do 4-points better than Harris did, the new House will be about 221D, 214R, a 7-seat edge. The website is interactive. You can set the over/under performance to whatever value you want (rounded to 0.5) and see which seats then flip on the map. For reference, in 2018, the Democrats overperformed Hillary Clinton's 2016 showing by 6.5 points. If they were to achieve that overperformance again, that would flip 13 seats, get 227 seats and control the House with a margin of 19 seats. Note that due to more gerrymandering since 2016, however, there are fewer competitive seats now than there were in 2018. (V)