Dem
47
GOP
53
Thus far, since Donald Trump re-took office, the Democrats have flipped 27 state legislature seats. The Republicans have flipped zero.
This weekend, the GOP liked its chances to finally end that shutout. The good people of Louisiana headed to the polls to fill five legislative seats that had come open, mid-term, for various reasons. In a tribute to the longstanding Southern tradition of one-party politics, four of the races were either Republican vs. Republican (predominantly white districts) or Democrat vs. Democrat (predominantly Black districts). However, there was one seat that involved a Democrat facing a Republican. Prior to coming vacant, that seat was held by a Democrat, Chad Brown, who was appointed to a position in the bureaucracy. Brown won the seat under somewhat wonky circumstances; in a four-way field, he and a "No Party" candidate were the top two finishers, and then the "No Party" candidate dropped out before the runoff. Meanwhile in 2024, Donald Trump won the district's vote by 13 points. So, you can see why Republicans were licking their chops.
So much for that. After the votes were counted, Chasity Verret Martinez (D) had laid waste to Brad Daigle (R), 62% to 38%. That means that the swing from Trump 2024 to Verret Martinez 2026 was a staggering 37 points in favor of the blue team. At this point, it's kind of hard to see what the profile of "legislative seat the Republicans might plausibly flip" would be right now.
We have written, dozens of times, that no matter how you squint your eyes, there's no avoiding the conclusion that these election results are an ill omen for the GOP in 2026. Even allowing for the small, wonky electorates that special elections tend to attract, the swings are just too big, and too consistent, to be random bad luck.
It is, of course, more than 6 months to Election Day, and things can change. But, as a thought exercise, try to think of what, exactly, might shift the momentum in the direction of Trump and his party. Economic upturn? Not too likely and, besides, it didn't work too well for Joe Biden. Foreign military intervention and "rally 'round the flag" effect? See Venezuela. An inspiring speech? He's Donald Trump, not John F. Kennedy. We spend a lot of time thinking about hypotheticals, and we struggle to think of something that might plausibly add, say, 10 points to Trump's approval rating. If readers have ideas, we're very interested to hear them at comments@electoral-vote.com. (Z)