Dem
47
GOP
53
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th. Bad luck for DHS unless there is a last-minute deal to kick the can down the road. Otherwise, most of it will shut down at the stroke of midnight. It should be noted that ICE is not fully affected by the DHS appropriation since it got some funding from the BBB. Still, in a long enough shutdown, it would have to stop paying some workers. Since the Democratic base hates ICE, a deal is unlikely. What happens if the funding runs out?
The full impact of a DHS shutdown wouldn't be felt immediately, but it would be if the shutdown lasted long enough. TSA personnel at airports will continue to get paid until sometime in March. After that, no pay until it is over. Once TSA workers are no longer being paid, some will stop working for TSA and find temporary jobs elsewhere. This will result in chaos at airports. If TSA screening stops completely at airports, the pain will be very intense, not only for travelers, but also for many companies that use air cargo (because many passenger flights also carry a fair amount of cargo in the hold). This cargo includes perishable goods, like fruits and vegetables, as well as U.S. mail.
FEMA has $7 billion in its account that could be used for small-to-medium disasters. But payments for previous disasters would slow to a trickle and eventually stop. The Coast Guard would also be hit, but its operations in support of the military would not be affected.
An agency that would take a big hit is the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Trump decreed that only about one-third of its workers are essential. Foreign attacks on domestic infrastructure could spike.
Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem could use accounting tricks to try to paper over holes in the budget for a while. However, eventually the pain will kick in if the shutdown goes on long enough.
Once the pain hits a certain level, which might take a month or more, the pressure on Congress to "fix" it will become unbearable. However, Democrats see this as their one and only opportunity to rein in ICE (even though ICE will still be funded) and the base will be furious if they cave. On the other hand, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) no longer sees legislating as part of his job description, so the Democrats will have to negotiate with Donald Trump directly, and he is unlikely to budge. Also, as Democrats know but would never, ever say out loud, if air traffic stopped for a month or two, that would wreak havoc with the economy in many, many ways. And a lot of voters think: "When the economy goes south, it is the president's fault." Democrats could probably live with that. (V)