Dem
47
GOP
53
Governor of California is probably the second-most powerful elected position an American politician can aspire to. Not surprisingly, when the position becomes open, quite a few folks see themselves as a future governor. It doesn't hurt that reelection to a second term is nearly guaranteed; every California governor since World War II who has tried for a second term has gotten it. This year, there is an open-seat election for governor of California, and not surprisingly, there is a large herd of politicians (and a couple of non-politicians) gunning for it. Here is the list of major candidates so far (alphabetically):
DemocratsWith all these high-powered candidates, it's pretty wide open. In California's crazy top-two election system, all candidates run in the primary and the top two finishers advance to the general election. This system can be manipulated by a candidate with a lot of money, as now-Sen. Adam Schiff did in 2024. Absent his ratf**king, he might have had to face Katie Porter in the general election and he could have lost that. However, he wisely spent a fortune running ads saying that the Republican in the race, Steve Garvey, was too conservative for California. These ads attracted Republicans to vote in large numbers and Garvey finished second, and then Schiff faced off against him and slaughtered him in November. There was nothing Porter could do to stop this.
Will money play a big role in the gubernatorial race? It might. Mahan, a moderate Democrat, is the favorite of the big tech bosses. He jumped in last week and already raised $7 million directly and another $3 million via a super PAC. What makes a mere mayor so attractive to the tech bosses? He opposes the proposed one-time net wealth tax aimed at Californians worth upwards of $1 billion. By European standards, this is extremely modest, with a number of countries having annual wealth taxes that cut in at a much lower level than $1 billion, usually below $1 million.
In many polls so far, "undecided" is the big winner, at 25-35%. So far, it has mostly been a name recognition contest. In one recent poll, Bianco was first at 15% and Hilton was second at 14%. If this holds (very unlikely) then the general election would be between two Republicans in a state that is overwhelmingly Democratic. This shows how stupid the election law is. Alaska—yes, that thinly populated state where polar bears roam wild—has a far better system, in which the top four finishers in the all-party primary meet in November for a ranked-choice election. Most other states are happy with partisan primaries, with Democrats picking the Democratic candidate and Republicans picking the Republican candidate.
There is plenty of time for money to talk—as it usually does. It is a wide-open race so far. The primary is June 2. (V)