Dem
47
GOP
53
The Democrats know who their candidate will be in this year's gubernatorial race in Arizona. It's the incumbent, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ). The only other person to file paperwork, on the Democratic side, is Saint Omer "Captain" Ettré Divine K.A.K.O.U., who identifies himself as High Commander of The One Saints, Overseer of The Undead Saints Academy, First Guardian of The Thirteen Court Guard Saints, Resident of High Heaven CENTRAL and Servant of the Flame. Seems like his plate is pretty full, even without the governorship. In any event, our vast experience with politics and political analysis allows us to predict that Hobbs will eke out a victory and advance to the general.
As of yesterday, the Republicans also have a pretty good idea of who their candidate will be. Karrin Taylor Robson, who finished second to Kari Lake in the previous Republican gubernatorial primary, was first out of the gate, in late 2024, and managed to land Donald Trump's endorsement, along with the labor of some of his key people (like pollster Tony Fabrizio). Since then, however, the wheels have largely come off. Robson was having trouble with fundraising, first of all. More importantly, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) jumped into the race. Biggs has two things going for him, relative to Robson, at least from Trump's perspective: (1) He's more fervently MAGA, and (2) he has a penis. So, he ALSO got Trump's endorsement. The President didn't have the fortitude to withdraw his initial endorsement, but he did tell Fabrizio and the others to stop working with Robson. Yesterday, she saw the writing on the wall, and dropped out.
That leaves two Republicans still standing; in addition to Biggs, Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) is also in. However, Biggs has the backing of Trump and Schweikert does not. Further, Biggs has the support of Turning Point USA, which has a lot of influence in Arizona Republican politics, and Schweikert does not. And Biggs is also outraising Schweikert. So, expect the race to be Hobbs vs. Biggs. That will gladden the hearts of Democrats, because Robson is a stronger general election candidate than Biggs is, particularly in the likely political environment that will be in effect in November. Biggs' best hopes are: (1) that Hobbs, who is not a great campaigner, drops the ball and/or (2) that it's a "throw the bums out" year all around, and that incumbents from both parties take a drubbing. The problem here is that, in midterm elections, voters usually focus their wrath on bums who are members of the party that holds the White House.
And speaking of Lake, she is apparently trying hard to have a third act. She already blew a gubernatorial election in 2022, and a U.S. Senate election in 2024, so now she's lowered her sights and wants to run for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. She visited the White House late last year, and waited for hours to see Trump, in hopes of landing his endorsement. Not only did Trump not have time for her, but several of his low-level advisers made clear there is "no enthusiasm" for her to run for office again. Lake has been a Trump sycophant for years, and has taken a hatchet to Voice of America on his orders, and this is her reward. Yet another person who refused to see that with Donald Trump, loyalty goes only one way (and also see below). (Z)