Feb.16

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

DHS Has Shut Down. Now What?

Saturday morning at 00:00:01 EST, the funding for the Department of Homeland Security ran out and most of the department shut down. ICE has some funding from the BBB independent of the annual appropriation, so it can continue operating for the time being. Agencies including the Coast Guard, Customs and Border Protection, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency, FEMA, the Secret Service, and TSA are affected, among others. Workers will begin missing paychecks in March. Most TSA workers are deemed essential and are expected to work without pay. Workers who live paycheck to paycheck and who have no savings to live on often call in sick during shutdowns and look for temporary work elsewhere so they can pay the rent and eat. Some find better jobs and quit outright. With fewer screeners at airports, there is likely to be chaos if this goes on for a while. Airlines are allowed to hire their own screeners, but they have to be trained and approved by TSA. Air traffic controllers are part of the Department of Transportation and have already been funded through Sept. 30, so they will continue to work normally.

An agreement is unlikely any time soon, as Congress is in recess and members have gone home. They are expected to come back on Feb. 23. Unlike in other shutdown situations, there are no secret negotiations going on this week (or if there are, they are so secret that no one knows about them). Each party thinks the other one will get the blame for the shutdown and thus has no incentive to negotiate.

The Democrats have a list of demands that must be met before they will approve DHS funding. The main ones are these:

• Roving Patrols: ICE agents all over the country are stopping and arresting people on the street, handcuffing them, and sending them to detention centers thousands of miles from where they were caught. In many cases, anyone who is not white is in danger of being nabbed, even U.S. citizens. A year ago, a poll found that 66% of Americans approved of ICE arresting immigrants at protests or rallies who could not provide proof of citizenship, but ICE isn't even asking for documentation anymore. Besides, few people carry a passport on them all the time. And just 54% approved of workplace raids, so presumably grabbing people off the streets will be even less popular than that. And these polls were taken before ICE killed Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.
  
  
• Due Process: Democrats have said they do not want ICE entering anyone's home absent a warrant from a Senate-confirmed Art. III judge. ICE has been using administrative warrants, which are issued by Executive Branch employees, not actual judges. Democrats want to end this practice. In an Ipsos poll, 50% of respondents said that ICE needs to give targets due process, which means bringing them before a judge where they can make their case, potentially with a lawyer. However, 37% did not think due process is needed. A PRRI poll shows that 61% oppose deporting people to foreign prisons without due process, with 37% supporting deportation without due process.
  
  
• Masks and Cameras: Having ICE agents wear body cameras is popular, with 92% of respondents saying the agents should wear them. Masks are more contentious. The administration says that masks are needed to prevent agents from being doxxed, even though not a single case of doxxing has occurred. More likely, the administration is afraid that if agents can be identified, they could be indicted for crimes by a future administration, and this would hurt recruitment and also make the agents far less willing to break the law. In a Quinnipiac University poll, a clear majority (61%) say agents should not be allowed to be masked. An NBC poll put the number at 63%.
  
  
• Racial profiling: Racial profiling is very unpopular, with 72% of respondents in a Pew poll opposing it. A much-shared video from Minneapolis shows a Border Patrol agent saying he asked someone for their papers due to his accent. DHS denies this.
  
  
• Increasing standards: Due to the large amount of money ICE got from the BBB, it began hiring vast numbers of people and had no time to train them. Having untrained officers in the field is extremely unpopular, with 80% of Americans in an Ipsos poll saying adequate training of officers is very or extremely important.
  
  
• Code of Conduct: Democrats want to hold ICE officers accountable for their behavior. In an Ipsos poll, 59% of respondents didn't expect the investigation of the death of Renee Good to be fair. For the investigation of Alex Pretti's killing, 61% didn't expect a proper investigation.

All in all, most of what the Democrats want as a condition for ending the shutdown is very popular with the voters. This may give them some backbone to refuse to cave until they get what they want. Also, they may realize that caving will be very unpopular and could hurt them in the midterms. The result could be a very long shutdown. (V)