Dem
47
GOP
53
Since Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) was inaugurated, Democrats have the trifecta in Virginia. One of their top priorities is gerrymandering their congressional map to add more Democrats to their House delegation. One small fly in the ointment was a county judge who ruled they couldn't do that. Now the Virginia state Supreme Court has taken up the case and has ruled that the procedure the legislature followed was indeed correct and a referendum scheduled for April 21 can indeed take place as scheduled. If the referendum passes, the new map will give the Democrats a good shot at 9 or 10 of the 11 House seats. They currently have six. If the referendum passes, the map will hold until the 2030 census is published.
The battle is already shaping up with "Yes on 50" and—oh, no wait, that was California. The Virginia referendum doesn't appear to have a number, but it will be the only thing on the ballot. A group called Virginians for Fair Elections is in favor of the new (highly unfair and very partisan) map. Branding is important, kids. The other side has a group called "No Gerrymandering Virginia."
For potential candidates, the situation is complicated. It is hard to plan a campaign if you don't know what your district will look like. In practice most candidates have a Plan A (if the new map is adopted) and a Plan B (if it is not). For some Democrats, Plan A is to run in a newly gerrymandered district and Plan B is not to run at all. For some Republicans, it is the reverse. The primary elections are on June 16. A problem is that the filing deadline under current law is April 2 but the referendum is April 21. Maybe the legislature will extend the deadline later this year.
After Virginia, the only other big state contemplating more gerrymandering is Florida, even though the state Constitution explicitly bans gerrymandering. But back in the real world, who gives a hoot what the Constitution says when power is at stake? Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is a huge fan of more gerrymandering, so it is likely to happen. Republicans could probably pick up 3-5 seats in Florida with an aggressive map, roughly canceling out Virginia.
Erin Covey at the Cook Political Report is trying to keep track of it all. Here is her take.
| State | Net win | Status |
| Alabama | GOP 1 | Pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling |
| California | Dem 3-5 | Proposition 50 passed by the voters |
| Florida | GOP 2-3 | Special session called for April |
| Illinois | Dem 1 | Potential gain if legislature wants it, but no action so far |
| Kansas | GOP 1 | Efforts currently stalled in legislature |
| Louisiana | GOP 1 | Pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling |
| Maryland | Dem 1 | House of delegates passed new map, waiting in Senate |
| Missouri | GOP 1 | New map passed by legislature could possibly be vetoed by the voters |
| New York | Dem 1 | State judge ordered a new map but it has been appealed |
| North Carolina | GOP 1 | State legislature enacted a new map |
| Ohio | GOP 0-3 | Redistricting commission enacted new map required by law |
| Texas | GOP 3-5 | Signed, sealed, and delivered |
| Utah | Dem 1 | Court-ordered new map kept Salt Lake County intact |
| Virginia | Dem 2-4 | Referendum April 21 |
| Wisconsin | Dem 1-2 | Pending state Supreme Court decision |
There is a fair amount of uncertainty here. For example, the Texas map assumes Latinos will break for Republicans in 2026 as they did in 2024. If they don't, the gerrymander could backfire and turn out to be a dummymander as districts intentionally packed with Latinos might elect a Democrat. Illinois could pick up a seat, but shows no sign of actually doing it. The Kansas bill is stuck and may not get unstuck. In addition, multiple courts have yet to weigh in, but the clock is ticking.
All this said, Covey says that the best case for Republicans is 11 new seats in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas vs. four new seats for the Democrats in California and Utah. Advantage red team with a seven seat net win. She also says that the best case for Democrats is that Florida, North Carolina Ohio, and Texas give the Republicans only six new seats while the new maps in California, Utah, and Virginia give the Democrats 10 seats, for a four seat net win. So the final score could be anything from R+7 to D+4. She is assuming no net change in Alabama, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, New York, and Wisconsin, but that is far from certain. A lot depends on whether there is a blue wave and if so, how big it is. Also, the court rulings matter.
The bottom line is nobody knows. Our feeling is that Florida will draw an aggressive map and the net result, based on the 2024 election results, will be a handful of pickups for the red team. However, in a blue wave election, some of the carefully drawn districts might be upsets with Democrats winning supposedly safe Republican seats due to a 2026 electorate that is radically different from the 2024 electorate.
Covey also notes that if the Supreme Court throws out the Voting Rights Act quickly, all bets are off. Most Southern states hold primaries in March or April and once primaries have been held and candidates nominated, changing the map gets awfully hard and the courts might not allow it until 2028. (V)