Dem
47
GOP
53
The Democrats have a vague feeling that 2026 and 2028 could be good to them, and history is on their side, but they don't know which way to go. Some elected officials, party operatives, pundits, and voters say: "Go left, that is where the energy is." Others say: "Move to the center, where many disaffected normie Republican voters are low-hanging fruit ripe for the picking as long as you don't say scary things." What's a party to do?
Primary season begins in 2 weeks, and then we will get some idea where the voters are. The first test—and it is a real lulu—is in Texas (of all places) on March 3. On the Democratic side, a moderate Democrat who is studying to be a Presbyterian minister, James Talarico, is up against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX), who is studying to be Marjorie Taylor Greene, but upside down. On the Republican side, conservative-but-sane Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is in the fight of his life against Texas AG Ken Paxton, who is so crooked that the Texas House impeached him. That is not an easy achievement for a Texas Republican to pull off. That will give an idea of where the parties are, at least in Texas. Do the voters prefer boring normal or somewhere out beyond the fringe—you know, out in the Oort cloud, with a bunch a big sharp rocks flying around?
In some ways, the Democratic primary in Michigan (Aug. 4), is a better test for what the Democrats want because there are three choices there—call them small, medium, and large (amounts of socialism). It is hotly contested because it is an open seat due to the retirement of Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) and it is in a key swing state the Democrats must win to have any chance at controlling the Senate in 2027.
From left to right (visually and politically), are physician Abdul El-Sayed, who served as director of the Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services for Wayne County, MI; state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI).
El-Sayed is focusing on health-care costs. He blames the rising cost on corporate greed. He supports Medicare for all, union membership, and an economy that works for working people. He is strongly opposed to funding foreign militaries (which applies to both Israel and Ukraine). He has been endorsed by both Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
McMorrow, a previously obscure state senator, went viral on April 22, 2022, with a fiery speech on the floor of the Michigan state Senate. Here it is:
Since then, she has been seen as a rising star in the Democratic firmament. She emphasizes the American Dream and how she made it from a poor childhood being raised by a single mom with four kids to being elected to the state Senate. She wants other people to make it, too. Her issues are cost of living, safe communities, kids and families, and health care. She is a progressive, but not as far left as El-Sayed. She has been endorsed by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Martin Heinrch (D-NM), and dozens of Michigan politicians who know her.
The establishment candidate is Stevens, who wants a promotion from the U.S. House. She is a moderate who worked on the campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. She has been closely associated with the auto industry and has campaigned at auto plants. Her top three issues are equitable federal investment, economic empowerment and access, and safer communities. She takes corporate PAC money and has been roundly criticized for it by McMorrow and El-Sayed, who refuse to accept it.
An Emerson College poll from late January had McMorrow at 22%, Stevens at 17%, and El-Sayed at 16%. This means: (1) it is going to be close and (2) many voters are still on the fence. The Republican nominee for the Senate is likely to be former Rep. Mike Rogers. Since there is also an open-seat election for governor and Michigan is a key swing state, there will be a vast amount of (national) attention on Michigan this year. (V)