Dem
47
GOP
53
Forty-eight states award all their electoral votes to the statewide winner of the presidential election. Nebraska and Maine are the exceptions, awarding one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district and two to the statewide winner. Many short-sighted Republican state legislators in Nebraska want to change this and make the whole state winner-take-all, to deprive the Democrats of one measly electoral vote (which both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won). Too bad for the folks in Omaha (NE-02), which is a D+3 district. An ugly fight is now brewing in the land of Lincoln (Lincoln, NE, that is, the state capital), and it's complicated.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who represents NE-02, is retiring. Since the House seat could go either way, the election is going to be very competitive. One of the candidates to replace Bacon is state Sen. John Cavanaugh Jr. (D). He is in a strong position to win the primary and the general election. This is a problem for the Democrats. There is nothing wrong with Cavanaugh; he is a normal Democrat and would make a fine congressman. The problem is that if Cavanaugh is elected to the House, Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) gets to appoint the new state senator to Cavanaugh's seat. As an aside, Nebraska used to have a state House, but it was abolished in 1934 to save money and the members of the nominally nonpartisan unicameral legislature are still called senators.
As fate would have it, Democrats have exactly enough seats in the legislature to block a new law that would award all electoral votes to the statewide winner. However, if Cavanaugh wins the House seat and Pillen appoints a Republican to the empty state senate seat, then the legislature will almost certainly eat the blue dot and make it go away. For this reason, Crystal Rhoades, clerk of the Douglas County District Court, jumped in the House race. Her only campaign issue is to save the blue dot for the Democrats. Her argument is that it doesn't matter whether she or Cavanaugh is in the U.S. House. They would both vote the party line on everything, so they are otherwise interchangeable. Only her election would save the Democrats one electoral vote in presidential elections. It is an unusual campaign issue.
Another Democrat in the primary is political organizer Denise Powell. She also acknowledges the blue dot issue, but is talking more about health care and prices. However, Cavanaugh has the endorsement of Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. This suggests that Cavanaugh might be too lefty to win the seat. It's Omaha, but it's also Nebraska, not Vermont. Powell has the endorsement of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and EMILY's List.
Cavanaugh also has another advantage: his name. His father, also John Cavanaugh, once represented the district in Congress and his sister, Machaela Cavanaugh, is a state senator. It will be an interesting race. The primary is May 12.
Oh, by the way, the reason we said the Nebraska Republicans are short sighted is that this whole issue is pointless. The Democrats have the trifecta in Maine and have said if Nebraska goes winner-take-all, they will do the same thing, eliminating the one electoral vote the Republicans usually win in ME-02, in the northern 92% of the state. That would cancel out what Nebraska is trying to do. However, it is not a red dot, as ME-02 is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River. It is larger than six states and only 10 square miles smaller than all of Massachusetts. From our point of view, having all states be winner-take-all makes it easier for us to keep score in presidential elections, even though ignoring both NE-02 and ME-02 doesn't really matter in practice since they cancel each other.
From a political point of view, it is a pity, because if every state used the Nebraska/Maine system, it would make the presidential elections not depend solely on seven swing states. Both candidates would then campaign in California, Texas, Florida, and New York, because there are competitive districts that would be worth electoral votes in all of them. It would make the presidential race a true national election. Getting rid of the electoral college is not going to happen, but having every state use the Nebraska/Maine system might be doable without a constitutional amendment. That would work only if every state did it. Suppose Congress passed a law ordering all states to use this system? Would the Supreme Court buy that? It is nominally nonpartisan, so it might. It would definitely be an improvement over all states being winner-take-all. (V)