Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, Axios had an article saying that the Trump administration is very close to a war with Iran. It would not be a pin-prick operation like in Venezuela, but a long, drawn-out war with the goal of at least destabilizing, if not replacing, the current regime. This would not be the first time the U.S. has interfered in Iran with the goal of regime change. In 1953, the CIA overthrew the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh after he nationalized the Iranian oil industry.
Why might Trump be getting ready to hit Iran? A key reason is that the talks with Iran are going badly. Fundamentally, Iran wants to build nuclear weapons and Trump doesn't want Iran to do that. What a compromise might be is not clear. Maybe, Iran gets to build only half as many nuclear weapons as it wants to? Probably will not fly with Trump. The U.S. negotiating team consists of those experienced diplomats Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. J.D. Vance told Fox News that the talks went well in some ways but "in other ways it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through." Like the part about their not having nuclear weapons. Some sources have said that Trump is getting fed up with Iran's stalling.
It could also be that preparing for an actual war with Iran by deploying forces in the region might make the ayatollahs nervous. They know that Trump is unpredictable and has already hit Iran once, so his doing it again is a real possibility they have to consider, especially if the new goal is regime change. So maybe the war preparation is just a stunt to rev up the pressure. But maybe not.
Pete Hegseth is great at telling generals they are too fat and pistol-whipping universities (see previous item). If war came to Iran, we might find out whether he is also good at fighting actual wars. Of course, the Joint Chiefs might just agree to everything he said and then quietly ignore his orders and do everything the way they think is best and let him take credit for it, even if they were in fact flouting his direct orders.
It is likely that Israel would join in the campaign. Intelligence from Mossad could be invaluable in picking targets and possibly for on-the-ground campaigns. A dramatic win (or loss) could shake up the unstable region with unforeseen consequences. Suppose Iran, knowing that it cannot defeat F-35s, decided to fight back by attacking within the U.S. to influence public opinion. Suppose they were able to capture a few hostages. What would Trump do then and would it work well under the direction of that brilliant military strategist Pete Hegseth? Good questions. (V)