Dem
47
GOP
53
Well, actually, the problem affects Rep. Tony Gonzales' (R-TX) enormous district, TX-23, which stretches across the majority of Texas' border with Mexico, includes a part of San Antonio, and not part of Houston. Still, close enough for government work.
Gonzales has been enmeshed in a pretty ugly sex scandal for the last several months. Allegedly, the married Gonzales was carrying on an affair with his aide, the married Regina Santos-Aviles. That's not great, given that the Republicans are ostensibly the "family values" party, and that a member of Congress sleeping with one of their underlings is pretty clearly into sexual misconduct territory, given the power imbalance involved. But the whole thing got immeasurably worse when an apparently jilted Santos-Aviles took her own life last September, and in a particularly brutal way: self-immolation.
Gonzales has endeavored to deny everything, but yesterday, his hometown newspaper got ahold of and published some very racy texts that Gonzales and Santos-Aviles exchanged. The messages cover only 6 hours or so and technically, they don't confirm the extramarital affair, since none of them specifically confirms the pair actually had intercourse. However, they are very explicit about what Gonzales would like to do to Santos-Aviles in bed, and in what position. Certainly it strongly suggests an affair. And, at very least, it makes clear that Gonzales was abusing his power, and that he was lying when he said there was nothing going on.
On a moral and ethical level, it's clear what needs to happen here: Gonzales needs to resign, and immediately. Quite a few of his Republican colleagues agree. Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) and Nancy Mace (R-SC) all said yesterday that Gonzales should quit, and implied that he should be expelled if he doesn't step down.
On a political level, things are a little more complicated. The first issue, of course, is that the GOP margin in the House is razor-thin, and the loss of another member would put the balance at 217R, 214D. Then it would be 218R, 214D once a replacement for Marge Greene is elected, and then 218R, 215D once a replacement for Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) is elected. That not only allows Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) just one defector (possibly Thomas Massie, R-KY) on votes, it's also getting VERY close for comfort. There are some Republicans concerned that, in this climate, Greene's seat might just flip. There are also rumors that Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL) is in ill health, and may not make it to the end of his term. And then, Doug LaMalfa's replacement has to be chosen in the R+12 CA-01. The upshot is that a change in partisan control of the House starts to become, at very least, a mathematical possibility if Gonzales steps down.
On the other hand, if Gonzales hangs around, he is not going to help the image of the party that is also actively trying to bury Epsteinpot Dome. We suspect every Democrat in Texas will make him the face of the Republican Party. Maybe some Democrats outside of Texas, too.
And finally, there is the matter of Gonzales' district. It is R+7, which is less red than it used to be because of Texas' redistricting. The mapmakers were counting on R+7 being more than enough for an incumbent Latino in a heavily Latino district. But with the current political climate, and now with the sex scandal, maybe not so much. Would the Republicans be better off with a sleazy incumbent, or with an unknown who is not enmeshed in an ugly scandal? In 2 weeks, GOP voters in that district are going to cast their votes, and make a decision. (Z)