Dem
47
GOP
53
There have been a few interesting polls released this week. Just before the SOTU speech, Ipsos ran a poll and asked about Donald Trump's mental fitness. One of the questions was: "Has Trump become erratic with age?" Here are the results:
So a clear majority of all adults and also of independents think Trump has become erratic. If there is anything worse than a lame duck it is an erratic lame duck. On another question, 79% of respondents said that elected officials are too old.
Next up, the Cook Political Report has a nice chart showing how different demographics view Trump now vs. 2024. Here it is:
As you can see, Trump is doing somewhat better with Black and Democratic voters (!), but substantially worse with every other demographic, including his base of noncollege whites. He is doing especially poorly with independents. This does not bode well for the midterms.
Finally, getting back to Americans thinking members of Congress are too old, a University of New Hampshire poll of the Maine Democratic Senate primary has Graham Platner leading Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) 64% to 26%. This result is consistent with voters wanting younger candidates, but it is a bit hard to believe in this case since in earlier polls Mills was ahead. Hopefully there will be more polls from some other pollsters soon.
Finally, a University of Texas poll on the Democratic Senate primary in Texas has Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) ahead of state Rep. James Talarico 56% to 44%. If Crockett wins the primary, we predict the following things will happen:
There might be a state in which Crockett could be elected to the Senate, but Texas is not it. Nominating her would basically throw out the chance of flipping the Texas seat and greatly reduce the chances of flipping the upper chamber. Against Ken Paxton, she might do better than against Cornyn—say, losing by only 5-10 points—but we can't envision her winning.
On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Paxton are tied. If Cornyn wins, then the Democratic primary is moot and Cornyn will be reelected (with the help of $90 million in ads for him). (V)