Feb.27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

The State of the Union: Time Won't Let Me

The State of the Union had a lot of words, and it produced a lot of reaction, so it took us a while to sift through it all. We didn't get that done in time for yesterday's posting, but we're ready to rock now.

Setting the Record Straight

We're going to do this in sections, just to keep it as tidy as we can. To start, we want to clear up a few things left over from our writeup of the SOTU. We saw only 8 hockey players, and we looked carefully to see if there were more. It is possible that we missed it, or it's possible that different networks showed different things (as we noted, we were watching ABC's broadcast). Many, many readers wrote in to correct us, and to point out that there were actually 17 hockey players there. Reportedly, five members of the team took a pass on the Washington trip entirely, while three others were in the capital, but not at the SOTU. And 25-5-3 equals 17.

Also, we pointed out that we aren't fluent in Spanish, and so could not review the Spanish-language response given by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA). We heard from two readers who ARE fluent, and we wanted to pass along their responses:

J.G. in Chantilly, VA: Sen. Padilla delivered a concise, well articulated response which was naturally directed to the Spanish-speaking audience, but was consistent with broader Democratic messaging. He cited ICE and its abuses, attempts to steal the midterms, and the economic struggles most are facing. He appealed to American history, especially the history of all who have suffered discrimination in the past or present, and talked about his own story as a son of immigrants (as well as a victim of DHS abuse).

He ended on a strong positive note: "This is the history of the United States: only the people will save the people" encouraging everyone to "raise their voices, march, organize and vote." He even reminded everyone of Bad Bunny's appeal "Together we are America."

Occasionally using English to emphasize a point (and include Latinos listening with their abuelos), his delivery was clear and accessible to any Spanish-speaker, and he placed American flags in his backdrop. All delivered in 10 minutes. ¡Excelente!

E.W. in Skaneateles, NY: The speech basically had three themes that he drove home over and over. Theme one was that Trump is corrupt and is helping his rich friends instead of focusing on issues that working-class voters care about, such as affordability and health care.

Theme two was that Trump's immigration policies are illegal and un-American, are terrorizing Latino (brown) communities in particular, and are causing chaos and destroying our way of life. He did throw in a little history about past discrimination against Irish, Italian, Chinese, and Japanese immigrants, as well as Black people, and how they pushed back against it.

Theme three lined up with that idea, which is that Trump is threatening the integrity of the 2026 midterm elections by trying to disenfranchise and intimidate voters, particularly Latino ones. I liked how Padilla encouraged those folks to register and to vote, and to encourage their friends and family to do the same. Let's hope that they do register and vote for Democrats in droves!

The only critique I had was that Padilla didn't say much about what the Democrats might actually be able to do if they take control of Congress, other than blocking Trump. However, I do think the message of "we will rein in Trump if elected" could move Latino voters who are already dissatisfied with Trump. I doubt it would persuade many Latinos who still believe in Trump and are committed to him to switch sides.

Thanks to both of you!

Also, we got a fair number of responses like this one, from M.L.V. in Hollister, CA: "I did not watch the SOTU—Why on earth would I expend a moment of my life to see or hear him speak? Besides, I knew that I would get your detailed assessment the next morning. I have to say I am surprised at your 'passable' grade and almost positive spin. I was not expecting that."

Truth be told, even (V) felt that way, a bit. (Z) was surprised by all of that, and proposes this, a list of what the "takeaways" would have been, if we had approached the speech in that manner:

Electoral-Vote.com:

• Trump wasn't a disaster, which for him is a big win
• That said, he prattled on forever
• He was about as funny as he is capable of being, which is also a win for him
• That said, he was also very nasty, which is not going to help with anyone not MAGA
• The awarding of medals was memorable, most of the other theatrics not so much
• Lies, Lies, Lies
• No policy ideas, no plan for Iran
• Stop trying to cosplay as an inspiring speaker, Donald
• Remember, a credible SOTU didn't do Joe Biden a whole lot of good

In (Z)'s mind, at least, that writeup had 1½ stars written all over it. 30% on the Tomatometer. A 25 (generally unfavorable) on Metacritic. A 3.0, 3.0, 2.0 and 4.0 from the judges. Oh well, you know what they say about the eye of the beholder.

Other Takeaways

Now, let's do a few ACTUAL lists of takeaways:

The Hill:

• Iran plans remain murky
• Seeking a midterms message
• A confrontation on immigration
• Politically, both parties got what they wanted

NBC News:

• Celebrating his economy
• Touting immigration crackdown
• Goading and clashing with Democrats

The New York Times:

• Trump tried to define Democrats on his own terms
• The former reality TV star put on a show
• Trump struggled to acknowledge Americans' economic pain
• Trump did not spend much time talking about Iran
• Supreme Court justices stayed mostly stone-faced
• Trump talked of others' fraud, but not his own ethical issues

PBS:

• Trump's 'roaring' economy is at odds with sour public sentiment
• Trump wraps himself in the flag
• Taking aim at Democrats
• The Supreme Court's 'unfortunate' decision
• Trump vows action on election 'cheating'
• No mention of Minneapolis
• Drumbeat for war gets louder
• On brand, the speech was the longest SOTU ever

The Washington Post:

• He touched on potential conflict with Iran
• He was defensive on the many issues where he's unpopular
• Democrats' opposition was varied
• This probably won't change much for Trump

NPR:

• Trump ignored the difficulties people are facing with the economy
• Trump's midterm message is... not new
• There was no legislative agenda
• The Democratic response had a wide range
• None of this will likely matter much politically because views of Trump are "baked in."

CNN:

• Trump goads Democrats on immigration
• A couple key points on tariffs
• Democrats lodged multiple protests
• Showmanship abounds
• The notable omissions
• Trump offers a rare case for potential Iran strikes
• An ominous line on voter fraud
• A characteristic cavalcade of falsehoods

There's a wider range here than is normally the case, but it was a very long speech, so we're not surprised that different commentators zoomed in on different things. That said, there's also no real disagreement here, either—you don't really have one outlet saying he conveyed an effective message on immigration, and another outlet saying he didn't. There's also a consensus view of sorts that can be drawn from all of these takeaways, and that also squares with our assessment, and it goes something like this: "Trump offered braggadocio and lies about his record, snide attacks and lies about the Democrats, and his odds of finding something useful to say or do about the kitchen-table issues that voters care about are about as good as his odds of finding Iran on a map. So, the speech is not likely to do much for him or the GOP long-term."

A Few Observations

We thought we'd also pass along a handful of observations we read and that we thought were interesting, for various reasons:

Eli Stokols, Politico: "It was, for better or worse, a speech not likely to change the political trajectory of Trump's second term. The historically long address was, in some ways, nearly indistinguishable from Trump's daily patter in the Oval Office, on Air Force One or in the White House driveway.

"For some leaders in the president's party, mindful of his capacity for political self-harm, that might be cause for relief. Republicans wake up on Wednesday morning with no political problems they did not have the day before.

"Yet the status quo of the midterm campaign does not favor the GOP: Trump is on the defensive on many of the issues driving the election cycle so far. That, too, did not change."

Catherine Rampell, The Bulwark: "There's an old joke about two elderly ladies kvetching about a meal. 'Oy, the food at this place is really terrible,' one complains. The other responds, 'And such small portions!'

"The same could be said of President Trump's affordability comments at last night's State of the Union, which were both brief and abysmal.

"Affordability is the issue for the 2026 midterms. In virtually every poll, with virtually every demographic, some version of 'inflation/prices/cost of living/economic problems' tops the list of the most important challenges facing the country. It also tops the list of reasons Trump's own voters are ditching him, according to polling from Morris Predictive Insights.

"And yet, according to the time-keepers from NBC News, in Trump's record-long 108-minute SOTU speech, he spoke about affordability for a measly 2.9 minutes."

Stephen Collinson, CNN: "Trump needed to tell a fresh story Tuesday night. But he ended up demonstrating instead that while the country can unite to cheer a new Miracle on Ice, a political coming together remains an impossible dream."

David Smith, The Guardian: "The more Trump talked, the less he said. He had gone into the address with an approval rating of 39% positive and 60% negative, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, lower than any past president delivering his first State of the Union address. Over an hour and 47 minutes, he offered little to change that equation. The longest State of the Union speech in history was also one of the most inconsequential."

GOP Strategist Karl Rove: "Trump offered elements of a credible, effective case for Republicans in the midterm campaign. But if they're to defend their majority successfully, congressional Republicans must offer more substance, be more forward-looking, display more empathy, and focus much more on the economy than what Americans heard Tuesday."

White House Press Release: "His powerful and uplifting address immediately earned widespread acclaim from media, commentators, lawmakers, and grassroots voices alike—who praised its bold optimism, masterful storytelling, and unapologetic celebration of American revival."

We hope the point here is reasonably clear. If you think you are doing GREAT (see last entry), you're not going to be listening to all the voices who say that maybe you need to change the game plan. If so, you really better hope those voices—left, right, and center—are wrong.

Barring the unexpected, that should be it in terms of items on this year's SOTU. Onward and upward. (Z)