Dem
47
GOP
53
One of the many stories that broke while we were trying (with limited success) to take a break was the Minnesota welfare fraud story. Put briefly, a MAGA-friendly independent reporter put together a video with lots of claims about fraud taking place in Minnesota, dating back to the COVID money, and with a particular focus on child care. Then, a bunch of journalists, MAGA and otherwise, jumped on, and added to the reporting, with a figure of $9 billion being bandied about. If you want all the gory details, you can read this overview.
There is much about this still-unfolding story that is unclear. Like, for example, how much money was actually involved? There are numerous officeholders, and sources, claiming that the $9 billion is high. Another question is exactly how correct this reporting is, and whether all of the "examples" of fraud are actually fraud. Still another question is whether Minnesota is somehow worse than other states (and, if so, why)? It's possible the North Star State is being scapegoated because it's blue-purple, and because it's got important elections this year, and because Trump has a Minnesota-shaped Somali bee in his bonnet these days.
Still, at least some bad stuff happened, and there was at least some level of failure on the part of the people running the state, up to and including Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN). Meanwhile, Trump has never, ever taken a "wait and see" attitude when he is able to take dramatic action NOW, even if that dramatic action may prove to be half-cocked. And, if that is not enough, he really, truly appears to loathe Minnesota's Somali-American community. So, Trump and others in his orbit have been saying some really horrible things about Somalis since the story broke, with the President slurring them as "garbage" who "contribute nothing." The White House has also dispatched 2,000 federal agents to Minneapolis and its environs, to "restore order." Because everyone knows that if you're dealing with white-collar crimes, the first people to call are the members of ICE.
There may be nothing that the modern-day GOP political machine is better at than taking a scandal and making it stick to as many Democrats as is humanly possible, for as long as is humanly possible. It may well be that when all is said and done, there's more smoke than fire here. And it probably is the case that while Walz bears some responsibility, on the basis that "the buck stops here," the blame due to him is pretty minimal. Still, Walz now has baggage, and that baggage could drag him down, or it could drag the DFL ticket down. The latter part is basically unthinkable for Democrats, as they need every Minnesota House seat as part of their quest to retake the lower chamber, and they cannot afford to lose the Senate seat that Tina Smith (DFL) is vacating if they want to have any hope at somehow flipping the upper chamber.
So, Walz fell on his sword (well, he's a former teacher, so maybe his ruler), and announced that he will not run for a third term, after all. But before he made that decision, he had a long meeting with... Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN). At this point, we're going to let reader J.D. in Cold Spring, MN take over the narrative, given that their expertise on Minnesota politics obviously outstrips ours:
As our extended family gathered for the holidays, we had several conversations about the effects that recent cases of fraud might have on Minnesota politics. Family politics range from moderate Democrat (who trend older and rural) to democratic socialist (who are younger and urban). Our Congressional representatives range from Tom Emmer (R) to Ilhan Omar (DFL). The consensus was that Walz would be hurt by the fraud cases (some real, some imagined) and that the Republicans had already seized the initiative on this issue by combining a kernel of truth with lies, exaggerations, and racism. The general sense was that Walz would survive, but downballot Democrats, including the folks running for U.S. Senator and state AG, might be hurt.
My interpretation of yesterday's news is that Walz agrees with our assessment and is "taking one for the team." By withdrawing from the race, Walz hopes to undercut the Republican case and avoid what would likely have been an ugly campaign. No doubt the issue will remain, as will the vicious anti-Somali racism that underlies much of it. But, in my opinion, with Walz gone, it will lose much of its sting.
Perhaps the bigger news is the possibility that Amy Klobuchar might give up her safe Senate seat and run for governor. With Tina Smith's retirement, Minnesota already has one open Senate seat on next fall's ballot. If Klobuchar runs for governor, we will have two. The Democrats have two reasonably strong candidates already in the race for Smith's seat: Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan. The Republicans have a range of announced and potential candidates, ranging from the crazy (Mike Lindell) to the merely wacky (former sportscaster Michele Tafoya; unannounced as of now).
My initial reaction to the news was disappointment (Walz is a man of integrity and decency), some fear (Klobuchar's safe seat would be in jeopardy), and anger (the Republicans succeeded in slandering a good man through a combination of conspiracy theories, vitriol and racism, a la Joe Biden). On reflection, my sense now is that if Klobuchar runs for governor, the Democratic ticket will be stronger than it would be with Walz. Strong enough to carry two Senate seats and Craig's open congressional seat? I think so, especially in even a modest blue-wave election. If Klobuchar does not run? Much will depend on who replaces Walz on the ticket. The Democratic bench is strong in Minnesota, so there is hope. Present AG Keith Ellison (DFL) has done a very good job, but will get painted as a far lefty (a progressive, Black Muslim will be too tempting a target for the Republicans). Secretary of State Steve Simon has been mentioned as a possibility. He has won statewide election and has been a good, if low-profile, SoS. He wouldn't have the coattails of Klobuchar, but he'd provide less of a target for Republicans.
That's the news from Lake Wobegon.
Thanks, J.D.!
We think that Klobuchar-to-the-governor's-mansion makes all the sense in the world. From her vantage point, the Senate is a dysfunctional mess, and nothing gets done. Plus, if she still harbors presidential hopes, well, voters like governors. From the vantage point of the party, Klobuchar is probably the most popular DFLer in the state, and probably would have coattails. Plus, she's been in D.C. since 2007, and so can hardly be tarred by a scandal that took place within the state borders of Minnesota. We are also inclined to believe that Walz got a good sense of Klobuchar's intentions during their meeting, and that he would not have dropped out if he didn't have a pretty strong belief that she'll run.
There were a bunch of other news stories, besides the Minnesota welfare fraud (and the response), that also broke while we were on break. We're already at 8,000+ words for today, so we'll have to get to those tomorrow. (Z)