Dem
47
GOP
53
Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) died unexpectedly on Tuesday. This is a pity, since he was not terribly MAGA, was well-liked by his House colleagues, and spent most of his time trying to help the farmers in his heavily agricultural district. He will be missed.
Also to be missed, for a while, is Rep. Jim Baird (R-IN), who was badly hurt in a car accident and will not be voting in the House anytime soon. Not at all missed will be Marjorie Taylor Greene, who officially resigned from the House on Monday. That's three Republican votes that are not available for the moment. On the other side, Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) just resigned her House seat, and a new Democrat will be elected in the late Sylvester Turner's former district later this month.
This math means that the House GOP caucus is technically at 218 and the Democratic caucus is technically at 213, with four vacancies (LaMalfa, Greene, Sherrill, and Turner). However, Turner's D+21 seat will be filled by a new Democrat in early February, Baird will not be voting any time soon, and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) often refuses to toe the party line, so as of February, the de facto line up could be 216R, 214D.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) has called for an election to fill Greene's seat, on March 10. However, readers will recall that in Georgia, as in most Southern states, a candidate must claim a majority in order to be elected. That likely won't happen in March, so the seat will almost certainly remain open until a top-two runoff in April. Meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is likely to delay the special election for LaMalfa's seat until the June 2, 2026, primary. Sherrill will try to get her seat filled as fast as she can.
So it is likely that, for a couple of months, if one Republican in addition to Massie defects on anything, and the Democrats remain united, the bill fails. That means every House Republican potentially has a veto on everything if Massie wants to be difficult to make a point. How will Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) manage this with virtually no margin for error?
Oh, in case you forgot, the government will shut down again on February 1 unless the parties agree to new funding bills. Democrats know what they want, but will Johnson be able to herd all the cats, and we mean all? A key problem that divides the Republicans is health care. It is going to tax Johnson's abilities to the limit. (V)