Jan.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Is 2026 Like 2018?

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has an interesting analysis of the upcoming midterms and how they compare to 2018. In that year, Democrats flipped 41 House seats. Could they do that again? The situation now is in some ways similar to 2018 and in some ways different, and these things cut in various directions, as follows:

• Inflation: In 2018, inflation was a distant memory, way back from when the Carter administration was in office. It didn't motivate anyone. Now inflation's child, affordability, is front and center. This will give the Democrats something to talk about and, after 2 years having complete control, Republicans are going to be on the defensive in a way they were not in 2018. Advantage: Democrats.
  
  
• Foreign Affairs: Donald Trump seems to have lost all interest in domestic affairs other than arresting and deporting people. Instead he is turning to geopolitics. Invading Venezuela was probably only step one, and that may not work out well. If things go south in South America, either due to a civil war there or a botched invasion of Cuba, Colombia, or even Venezuela, that will hurt the Republicans, in part because Americans love clean, bloodless, quickly won wars and have no stomach for American soldiers dying. If Trump invades Greenland, it will cause a huge rift and destroy NATO. That won't be popular with Democrats, independents, or normie Republicans. We can't tell this early who the geopolitics will help, but there is a good chance Trump will overreach and turn off some of his supporters (e.g., the ones who voted for the no-forever-wars candidate). Advantage: Democrats.
  
  
• Redistricting: A number of states have already redrawn their maps and a few more may do so. If Florida goes whole hog, it could probably flip four or five seats. If Virginia responds, it could flip two or three seats the other way. On the whole, redistricting will likely win the Republicans maybe half a dozen seats. Advantage: Republicans.
  
  
• More Gerrymandering: Gerrymandering has gotten worse since 2020, even before this year's mid-cycle redistricting wars. This means there are fewer competitive districts. Most of the aggressive gerrymandering following the 2020 census was done by the Republicans. It seems very unlikely the Democrats could flip 41 seats this time unless the country is really, really angry (say, a deep recession or American soldiers being killed abroad daily). Still, in a blue tsunami, flipping 20 seats might be possible. Advantage: Republicans.
  
  
• Democrats Have a Weak Brand: After Barack Obama left office, Democrats were upbeat and optimistic. Independents liked Obama and the Democrats. The Party had a good public image. That is all gone now. Polls have shown that Republican voters think all the Democrats care about are gay people and trans people. That's completely false, but that's what large numbers of them think. This means that many Republicans who have come to hate Trump will still vote for Republicans because they think the Democrats are even worse. Advantage: Republicans.
  
  
• Republicans Have More Money Now: The anti-Trump enthusiasm among Democrats in 2018 led to massive small-dollar fundraising. Many Democrats outraised their opponents. The NRCC couldn't close the hole. This time, Donald Trump has already collected $300 million in his MAGA Inc. PAC. In addition, the Supreme Court seems likely to weaken the financing rules again and allow "coordinated" expenditures, meaning that fat-cat Republicans could dump even more money into Republican campaigns. Advantage: Republicans.

• Health Care: Now as then, health care is a top issue, the next most important one after affordability. Democrats have a clear plan: lowering costs by providing subsidies in various ways. Medicaid isn't going to take a big hit until after the midterms, but Democrats will probably bring up the subject a few times anyway. Advantage: Democrats.
  
  
• Intensity Gap: Trump won in 2024 because marginal voters turned out for him. That seems unlikely this year because there are many marginal voters who show up only when they can vote directly for Trump, not for John Q. Congressman. Also, polls show that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this time. The special and regular elections last year all point to a big enthusiasm gap favoring the blue team. Advantage: Democrats.
  
  
• New Kind of Democrat: Democrats have discovered that "national security" Democrats do well. Think: Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA). All of them ran for the House for the first time in 2018 and won and have since gone on to greater things. The Democrats have lined up a number of candidates with national security backgrounds this time as well. These include retired Marine JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-06), former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam or former Ukraine ambassador Bridget Brink (MI-07), former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), former Army officer Cait Conley (NY-17), and retired Navy commander Elaine Luria (VA-02). If foreign policy is on the menu in November, these will be strong candidates. Advantage: Democrats.
  
  
• No Boogeyman: In the past, Republicans acted like Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was running in every district. She is not in the news anymore and the Republicans don't have a well-known boogeyman to run in every district. Advantage: Democrats.
  
  
• Senate Map: The map is crummy for the Democrats. The only two "easy" seats are Maine and North Carolina. But to get a majority, they need to flip these two and also two of Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, while holding their own endangered seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. Advantage: Republicans.
  

So, all in all, it is a mixed bag. Some factors point one way and some the other way. It is hard to see now what will dominate the elections. Affordability? Health care? Foreign wars? Trump's behavior? We simply can't tell this early. (V)