Dem
47
GOP
53
The Democratic bench in Alaska has approximately one person on it, and that person is former representative Mary Peltola. She is one of only two Democrats to win a statewide election in the 21st century, and the other, Mark Begich, says he has retired from politics. Consequently, the Democrats were really hoping she would run for either governor or for the U.S. Senate this year, with the Senate being the Party's preferred option.
We may be a couple of weeks into January, but yesterday the blue team got its Hanukkah/Christmas/Kwanzaa wish, as Peltola announced she will challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) for the seat he's held since 2015. She will undoubtedly have considerable financial and logistical support from the national party, and will likely rake in the donations as well. There's only one other Democrat in the race, and that person (Ann Diener, a sales executive at the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner) is an unknown. This means that Peltola will effectively have the blue lane to herself.
If you read the linked article, it points out the two biggest challenges that Peltola will confront. The first is that Alaska is a red state, and one that Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. The second is that when Peltola was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives, she benefited from a split between sane Republicans, represented by now-Rep. Nick Begich III (R-AK), and crazypants Republicans, represented by Sarah Palin. Neither of these people was an incumbent. By contrast, Sullivan is an incumbent, and he is not likely to draw a serious GOP challenger. So, two key dynamics that helped Peltola in 2022 won't play a role in 2026.
That said, things aren't quite so grim as Politico might have you believe. Alaska gets a few shades less red when Trump is not on the ballot, such that its PVI before he came along was R+6. Peltola is a moderate's moderate, having carved out a VERY centrist image. Meanwhile, Sullivan is not ultra-Trumpy, but he doesn't often push back against Trump, either, the way his colleague Lisa Murkowski does. So, if Trump/Trumpism/MAGA are toxic by November of this year, it's very plausible that some Republican/independent voters in Alaska won't show up to the polls, and others will shift their votes from Sullivan to Peltola.
The polling of the race thus far, such as it is, kind of tells the tale. Because it was likely Peltola would jump in, there have already been five surveys of the race. Two of them were by Data for Progress which, as you might guess, is a Democratic firm. They had her down by one (45%-46%) and up by one (46%-45%). The other three were by Alaska Survey Research. They had her up by three (44%-41%), down by five (42%-47%) and up by two (48%-46%).
So, according to the numbers, it looks like something of a dead heat. But note that part we write about how the polling "kind of tells the tale." Alaska is notoriously tough to poll, because it's hard to reach people. That is extra true in the dead of winter. So, all five of those polls were conducted in or before October of last year. Since then, there's been a government shutdown, an invasion of Venezuela, a killing in Minneapolis, a phony baloney investigation of Jerome Powell, and a host of other potential issues that could work to the detriment of the GOP. Peltola's best numbers, from each of the two polling firms, came in their most recent polls, which were both conducted in October. It is not outside the realm of possibility that the electorate has actually shifted a couple more points in her direction since then. In fact, if we had to bet, that is what we'd put our money on.
More broadly, the Democrats' path to a Senate majority has just widened again, at least a little bit. Even if Sullivan wins, the Republicans will have to use resources to defend the seat that will therefore not be available for use elsewhere. Further, keep in mind that the nine or ten Senate races that will determine control are only somewhat independent of each other. If the Democrats hold Georgia, they will probably also hold Michigan and New Hampshire. If the Democrats flip North Carolina, they are more likely than not to flip Maine. And if they somehow flip, say, Ohio, there's a very real chance that at least one of Texas, Iowa or Alaska comes along for the ride.
There was a time, not long ago, that a Democratic re-capture of the Senate in 2026 was inconceivable. But, as a wise Spaniard once pointed out, "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." At the moment, it is not probable that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will have to give up his gavel, but it's at least conceivable. Which means that 2026 just got a lot less fun for Thune and NRSC chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). It may become positively frightening by the time Halloween rolls around. (Z)