Dem
47
GOP
53
Pollsters often ask respondents which party they favor. Some people claim to be independents, but most of them lean one way or the other. During the first year of Trump v1.0, the percentage of Americans calling themselves "Republicans" or "Republican-leaning" dropped slightly, from 42% to 40%.
In Trump v2.0 though, the Republican Party is shedding members and supporters at a much faster clip than the first time around. This time, it has dropped 6 points in the first year, triple the dropoff last time. Similarly, more people are identifying as Democrats now than a year ago. A year ago, 43% of the country identified as Democrats. Now it is 48%. In Q1 2025, the parties were tied at 45% apiece. Now the Democrats have an 8-point lead:
A lead of 8 points is high for recent times. This is the largest lead either party has had since 2009. What is the most likely reason for this change? First, voters gave Trump a second chance in 2024 because they thought: (1) Joe Biden was too old and feeble, (2) Kamala Harris was too female and Black and (3) Trump was telling the truth when he said he would lower prices. Now they know better about the third point. Trump's victory was not a win for the Republican Party. It was a defeat for Biden and Harris personally and a win for Trump personally. This is not the same as party loyalty.
People generally vote for all the candidates of the party they identify with. With all the usual caveats about a week being a long time in politics, if there is a gap of 8 points in November, that will result in a large blue wave and almost certainly Democratic capture of the House and gains in the Senate (maybe even enough to run the place). (V)