Dem
47
GOP
53
When Texas did a midcycle redistricting, that caused the dam to burst and set off a redistricting flood in many states. California was the first blue state to do something to counteract the Texas move, but Virginia was not far behind. The Virginia state Constitution has a provision intended to slow down constitutional amendments. A proposed amendment has to be approved by the legislature and then approved a second time after there has been an election for the House of Delegates, so if the voters don't like the amendment, they can elect delegates who will oppose it in Round 2. This time, the opposite has occurred. The legislature approved a redistricting amendment in 2025, then in November 2025, the Democrats flipped 13 seats in the House.
Early last week, the new state House approved a redistricting amendment. Then on Friday, the state Senate also approved it. This will lead to a referendum in the early spring. If it is approved, the Democrats are likely to flip some U.S. House seats. The intended map has not been released yet, but just knowing the current districts, we can make a pretty good guess where the action will be. Look:
| District | PVI | Incumbent |
| VA-08 | D+26 | Don Beyer (D) |
| VA-03 | D+18 | Bobby Scott (D) |
| VA-11 | D+18 | James Walkinshaw (D) |
| VA-04 | D+17 | Jennifer McClellan (D) |
| VA-10 | D+6 | Suhas Subramanyam (D) |
| VA-07 | D+2 | Eugene Vindman (D) |
| VA-02 | EVEN | Jen Kiggans (R) |
| VA-01 | R+3 | Rob Wittman (R) |
| VA-05 | R+6 | John McGuire (R) |
| VA-06 | R+12 | Ben Cline (R) |
| VA-09 | R+22 | Morgan Griffith (R) |
Clearly Kiggans, Wittman, and McGuire are likely to be unemployed come next January. Meanwhile, Subramanyam and Vindman will be able to sleep much better at night after the new map comes into force. So this stunt is likely to net the Democrats three House seats. All in all, the net result of all the redistricting so far, including Virginia, is roughly a wash. However, if Florida also redistricts, that could give the Republicans potentially as many as five extra House seats, making the whole maneuver a net win for them. That said, it remains the case that in a blue wave, red gerrymanders could become dummymanders. If a state trades a smaller number of "not at all competitive" districts for a larger number of "slightly competitive districts," as Texas has done, that can go south if there's a big shift in the electorate. (V)