Dem
47
GOP
53
When the late Texas representative Sylvester Turner (D) died on March 5, 2025, Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) wanted to keep the seat in Turner's Houston-based district open as long as possible. So he scheduled the special election for Nov. 4, 2025. That meant that in the best case, the seat would remain open for 8 months. But in the likely case a runoff was needed (which it was), Abbott scheduled the runoff for Jan. 31, 2026. Two Democrats will be on the ballot then and one of them will replace Turner.
Some people thought that keeping a House seat open for 8 or 10 months wasn't a nice thing to do to the people who live there. One of the people who thought that was perfectly fine and dandy was Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who now finds himself in the opposite situation from Abbott. Former representative Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) died Jan. 6, and Newsom has now scheduled the special election to replace him for Aug. 4, 2026, the last date allowed by California law. However, the all-party primary is June 2, 2026, and if someone gets over 50% of the vote then, that person is elected and the Aug. 4 election is canceled. Multiple contenders are already in, so anyone getting 50% in June seems unlikely. That means House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will be denied one seat for 7 months. Two can play this game, so it seems.
Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation on Jan. 5 and LaMalfa's death the next day brought the House partisan balance to 218R, 213D. After the Texas special election, it will be 218R, 214D. The vote of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) can't be taken for granted. That doesn't leave much margin for error. Upcoming special elections balance out. On March 10, Georgians in GA-14, an R+19 district, will pick a new Republican to replace Greene. Then on April 16, New Jerseyans in NJ-11, a D+5 district, will likely pick another Democrat to replace former-Rep.-now-Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), bringing the balance to 219R, 215D until the August election in LaMalfa's CA-01 (R+12) district. In September, everyone will be out on the campaign trail. Don't expect the House to pass a lot of bills this year. (V)