Dem
47
GOP
53
There is an old, rather ribald, and apparently true story about the movie Spartacus, a film that now gets its second mention from us in less than a week. That was a three-hour, epic film. That is, in and of itself, a recipe for a VERY long shoot. On top of that, it was directed by Stanley Kubrick, which is also a recipe for a VERY long shoot. It dragged on so long that, on a tough day, about 6 months into filming, star Tony Curtis grumbled, "Who do I have to fu** to get off this picture?" And star Jean Simmons responded, "If you find out, let me know."
This story is on our minds, of course, because the Minneapolis mess just keeps growing and growing in scope. This series began as a single item, and then we accepted that it would have to be two parts, then three, then four. Well, we've done the first three parts, plus an intermission, and today we have Part IV. And guess what? We are going to have to do at least two parts AFTER this one. Today, we are going to insert an item that just updates everyone on all the drama since the last time we wrote about this subject. Then, tomorrow, we'll (hopefully) be able to proceed on to an item about the other acts of violence from ICE, and then finally we will do an item about the response thus far. Maybe we'll complete it this week, though the universe might have different ideas. For now, the latest:
Minnesota Resists
There aren't too many states that have a more interesting political culture than the North Star State. It's center/center-left, of course, but beyond that there's a strong current of self-reliance, and some populism, and a fair bit of rebelliousness. There is a reason that this is the state that gave election victories to Hubert H. Humphrey, Paul Wellstone, Al Franken, Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN), Jesse Ventura and Walter Mondale, among others. Those are some pretty different kinds of politicians (excepting the Wellstone/Franken pairing and maybe the Humphrey/Mondale pairing), but they all express well-established elements of the Minnesota milieu.
What it amounts to is that there MIGHT be states that would allow themselves to be invaded by ICE, without much in the way of complaint. We are not sure what states those might be, but they COULD exist. What we do know is that Minnesota definitely is not one of them. Certainly it's not a state that WE would want to try to impose our wills upon. And that's before you add in the cherry on the sundae, as it were, namely what season of year it is. There's a humorous observation going around right now, first brought to our attention by reader P.K. in Marshalltown, IA, that goes like this: "ICE made the decision to attack a city... full of the descendants of Vikings... in the middle of the winter."
The most prominent figures in pushing back against the Trump government, of course, are Walz and Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey. Walz has mobilized, and is getting ready to deploy, the Minnesota National Guard to protect his citizens. Trump may well try to seize control, but recall that the law says that's only legal when states are refusing to enforce federal law (most obviously, this happened during the Civil Rights Movement). If the White House does try to take over, it will claim that is what is going on here, and Walz will run to court so fast that it will make Trump's head spin. At that point, the administration will have to try to convince a judge that what it's doing is legal, and what Walz is doing is illegal. This is not likely to turn out the way the administration wants.
Meanwhile, Frey has been all over the media, and has been sharing some strongly worded verbiage. For example, he appeared on Face the Nation on Sunday and referred to ICE as an "occupying force." He added that, "This is not about safety. What this is about is coming into our city by the thousands and terrorizing people simply because they're Latino or Somali. And yeah, people in Minneapolis are speaking up. They're speaking up peacefully."
Some of Frey's widely circulated remarks have been, uh, a bit less family-friendly. Still, he's young (44), and a man of conviction, and he's very charismatic and telegenic. He could well have a future at the state, or national, level. And with Walz being somewhat calmer and older and wiser, they make a pretty interesting pairing, something along the lines of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Luke Skywalker, or Jean-Luc Picard and Will Riker, or Batman and Robin.
In addition, the citizenry of Minneapolis (and other places in Minnesota) is up in arms, and is taking it to the street, despite the frigid temperatures. There have been a lot of protests and protesters, and, as Slate's Aymann Ismail writes, they are turning into a disciplined resistance movement. Their anti-ICE activities have become regularized (e.g., people taking assigned shifts monitoring agents) and they are developing a vocabulary appropriate to the context (e.g., tailing ICE agents in unmarked cars is now known as "commuting"). These are folks who look to be in it for the duration, however long ICE decides to remain in town.
The Trump Administration Strikes Back
The White House continues to flex its muscles about as aggressively as it can. Given the potential problems with nationalizing the Minnesota National Guard, the administration is reportedly preparing to dispatch 1,500 regular troops to Minneapolis to support ICE. As we learned in Los Angeles, those troops' powers will be limited, unless the Insurrection Act is invoked. More on that later.
Meanwhile, Trump is currently making extensive use of his very favorite weapon, the Department of Justice. Among the current targets are:
It is possible that the investigation of the protesters might lead to something in terms of an indictment/conviction, but probably not much. The other investigations are going nowhere. And the whole point, of course, is to send a message to other politicians, protesters and journalists: Don't dare oppose us. This is not generally an effective way of silencing people.
There is also another clear goal, besides silencing opponents. Trump badly wants to invoke the Insurrection Act, so his administration can really crack down on the people of Minnesota. But again, it requires that the people of a city or a state be actively breaking federal law. Thus far, that hasn't happened in a manner that would have any hope of passing muster with a federal judge. So, what the White House really wants is to turn up the heat to the point that something really bad and illegal happens. For example, if an ICE officer were to be shot to death, Trump would publicly pretend to be sad, but he'd secretly be thrilled, because then he could declare Minneapolis to be in a state of rebellion, and could assume the powers granted by the Insurrection Act.
Sending more ICE officers is part of turning up the temperature. Sending actual soldiers is part of turning up the temperature. Threatening investigations and lawsuits against anyone and everyone is part of turning up the temperature. Arresting anyone with skin darker than that of Lt. Cmdr. Data is part of turning up the temperature. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem just announced that ICE "arrested over 10,000 criminal illegal aliens who were killing Americans, hurting children and reigning terror in Minneapolis." This is a lie (or a half-truth, at best), since the actual total number of arrests since ICE invaded Minneapolis is actually about 3,000. And even then, they're only getting to that total by running roughshod over many people's constitutional rights.
Meanwhile, Stephen Miller, who surely must have a permanent erection right now, has been getting in on the act. For example, Il Douchey got onto eX-Twitter on Sunday night and announced, of Minneapolis: "Only federal officers are upholding the law. Local and state police have been ordered to stand down and surrender." Miller either doesn't understand how a federal system works, or doesn't care, or some combination of the two. In any event, even the president cannot order local law enforcement to stand down. Certainly a wannabe tinpot dictator can't do it.
Don't Forget the Courts
As we note above, there aren't just two opposing factions in this dispute, there's also the umpires who wear black robes. Thus far, things are not going well for the White House on that front. Specifically, on Friday, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez of Minnesota issued a Preliminary Injunction prohibiting ICE officers from: (1) "retaliating against persons who are engaged in peaceful and unobstructive protest activity, including observing activities of Operation Metro Surge"; (2) "arresting or detaining persons who are engaged in peaceful or unobstructive protest activity... in retaliation for their protected conduct" and without probable cause or reasonable suspicion that the person has committed a crime "or is obstructing or interfering" with ICE activities; (3) "using pepper spray or similar non-lethal munitions and crowd dispersal tools against persons who are engaging in peaceful and unobstructive protest activity... in retaliation for the protected conduct" and (4) "stopping or detaining drivers and passengers in vehicles when there is no reasonable articulable suspicion that they are forcibly obstructing or interfering with [ICE]. The act of safely following [ICE] agents at an appropriate distance," Menendez added, "does not, by itself, create reasonable suspicion to justify a vehicle stop." The order remains in effect until the operation concludes or "conditions change such that it is no longer necessary" at the judge's discretion.
The lawsuit was filed last December, about three weeks before Jonathan Ross shot and killed Renee Good. The ACLU brought the suit on behalf of six protesters who were attacked by ICE agents for engaging in lawful and protected First Amendment activity. One woman was thrown to the ground and forcibly arrested while observing ICE activity in her neighborhood and after asking an agent, "Are you ICE?" Another man, Abdkadir Noor, an American of Somali descent, happened to be driving with his wife and a friend when several ICE agents stopped a car in front of them driven by two Latinos. He had pulled over after hearing the sirens behind him and observed agents breaking the car window and dragging the two Latinos out. Other people observing this started to yell at the agents. Noor was observing this activity and was urging people to remain calm. More agents arrived, some of whom spotted Noor, and told the other agents, "Let's get this guy." They grabbed him, threw him to the ground and arrested him. He was shackled and placed in a cell while being taunted by agents with slurs like "Somalis should go back home" and "Somalis drained Minnesota." He was released several hours later without charges or any paperwork or any explanation as to why he was arrested.
The order protects not just the six named plaintiffs but a class of people, defined as "all persons who do or will in the future record, observe, and/or protest Operation Metro Surge and related operations" in the district. The Judge denied defendants' request for a stay pending appeal so the order took effect immediately. It's possible this will have some deterrent effect on the indiscriminate arrests occurring in the Twin Cities, or at least will protect people from being dragged from their cars when they happen upon an ICE raid. But with this administration, don't count on it, especially given that it really, really wants a violent confrontation.
Menendez is also presiding over a separate lawsuit filed by the ACLU on behalf of Minnesota and the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul for a temporary restraining order to halt the ICE operation altogether for constitutional violations in indiscriminately harassing and rounding up anyone they come across who appears non-white. At a hearing on Wednesday of last week, she asked for further briefing before ruling. Assuming she agrees with the state and restrains ICE activities, it will be interesting to see how the conservative Eighth Circuit responds to the inevitable appeal, as well as how Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court justice who presides over emergency stay applications from the Eighth Circuit, responds. Kavanaugh has the dubious honor of having these unlawful and violent detentions named after him: They're now known as "Kavanaugh stops" because of his endorsement of ICE tactics in his concurrence, on the shadow docket, in a case that reversed a California district court's ruling that ICE's random sweeps targeting minorities at Home Depots and car washes were unlawful.
Concluding Thoughts (For Now)
These latest developments make very clear, once again, that both the administration, and its opponents in Minnesota, have decided this is a battle they want to have. Minneapolis presumably didn't expect to be on the front lines of this conflict, but sometimes it happens. Ask Gettysburg, or Sevastopol, or Agincourt, or Marathon, or Waterloo. And now that the city is where it is, it appears to be ready to fight.
It is true that Minnesota is cold, and that Minnesotans are pretty rough and ornery. But it is also true that Minneapolis is the 46th most populous city in the country, and that even if you throw in St. Paul, the duo only jumps to 18th (about the same as Denver or Seattle). And look how much difficulty the White House is having in imposing its program. What will happen if it tries this new, more aggressive approach in a larger city, or in several cities at the same time?
The lesson here is that when you crack down on people, they tend to fight back. By all indications, Donald Trump does not like Xi Jinping, but Trump surely must admire Xi's ability to stifle dissent. What Trump does not seem to appreciate is that: (1) Xi controls the courts, (2) Xi benefits from generations of stifling of dissent, (3) Xi is all-in, all-the-time on keeping his people under his thumb, and (4) Xi and his people are much more competent than Trump and his people. And even with all those advantages, China's government still loses control on occasion:
Yes, the leader then was Deng Xiaoping, not Xi, but they're pretty interchangeable. It's the system in China much more than it is the leader. And if Trump thinks he can somehow re-create that, or some version of it, in the U.S., he's in for an unpleasant surprise. A surprise that looks to be unfolding as we speak. (Z & L)