Jan.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Cook Political Report Now Has 18 House Races as "Toss-Up"

In two weeks, the House will be 218R, 214D, with three vacancies (2R, 1D), meaning that Democrats have to flip three seats to take charge of the chamber. The midcycle redistricting is not finished yet, with Maryland and Florida still at it, but still, a lot of attention will go to the seats that are toss-ups and can go either way. Charlie Cook now has 18 House seats rated as toss-ups, so these are likely to be the most fought over. Let us first look at the four toss-up districts currently represented by a Democrat:

• OH-01 (R+1) Greg Landsman: The recent redistricting in Ohio made Landsman's district much redder, but not impossibly so. He has all of Cincinnati as well as ruby-red Clinton County, but no longer has some of the left-leaning suburbs in Hamilton County. In the old district, Kamala Harris won by 6 points. She would have lost the new one by 2½ points.
  
  
• OH-09 (R+5) Marcy Kaptur: Marcy Kaptur has been in this district roughly since Methuselah was in short pants. She would have easily gotten her 23rd term, but Republicans redesigned her district to make it R+5. It is west of Sandusky, along Lake Erie, to the Indiana border. It is 78% white, as is Kaptur. Well, actually, she's 100% white. She is very well known there, but this will be her toughest race.
  
  
• TX-34 (R+3) Vicente Gonzalez: He was always a top target, so when Texas redistricted, they made his previously EVEN district in the Rio Grande Valley even redder. Still, R+3 is doable for an incumbent, especially if Latinos have had it with all the ICE raids.
  
  
• WA-03 (R+2) Marie Gluesenkamp Perez: This district is unchanged since last time, and Perez won it then, so she has a good chance to win it again, despite the red lean. She is likely to draw the state Senate Minority leader, John Braun, as her opponent. He is not as incendiary as the guy she beat last time.

Now, let's look at the much larger number of toss-up districts with an incumbent Republican who could be knocked off in a blue wave:

• AZ-01 (R+1) Open (was David Schweikert): This Scottsdale-based district is one of the wealthiest districts in the country held by a Republican. The median household income is $102,000. It was a top target even before Schweikert decided to run for governor. Now it is even more so. So far, four Republicans and six Democrats have filed. Trump won the district 51% to 48%.
  
  
• AZ-06 (EVEN) Juan Ciscomani: This is one of the most evenly balanced districts in the country. In 2024, Trump won it by less than 1 point. In 2020, Biden won it by less than 1 point. So far, three Democrats have filed. The weirdly shaped district is in the southeastern corner of the state. It is 67% non-Latino white and 21% Latino.
  
  
• CA-22 (D+1) David Valadao: Despite the slight Democratic lean, Valadao keeps pulling off wins in this agricultural district in the Central Valley. He is a pragmatic moderate who focuses on issues farmers care about.
  
  
• CA-48 (D+2) Darrell Issa: He is one of the victims of Prop. 50. His district was redrawn from R+7 to D+2. It is now extremely gerrymandered, running from Cathedral City to the Mexican border in eastern San Diego County. He will be a top target. He is one of the richest members of Congress, with an estimated net worth of $800 million. He made his fortune by founding a company that manufactured those irritating car alarms and then parlaying that small fortune to a much bigger fortune through investments. However, that may not be enough. The district is 47% non-Latino white and 46% Latino.
  
  
• CO-08 (EVEN) Gabe Evans: By design, this is the ultimate swing district. It encompasses the northern Denver suburbs almost up to Fort Collins. Trump won it by 2 points in 2024 and Biden won it by 4 points in 2020.
  
  
• IA-01 (R+4) Mariannette Miller-Meeks: Despite the lean of the district, the House races are sometimes close. In 2020, Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes. Christina Bohannan (D) is running again. Last time, Miller-Meeks beat Bohannan by 799 votes. It is that close.
  
  
• IA-03 (R+2) Zach Nunn: Another close Iowa district. Nunn got 51.8% of the vote last time. A state senator and a state representative have filed for the Democratic nomination. In a blue wave, it could flip.
  
  
• MI-07 (EVEN) Tom Barrett: This is a very swingy district. Only three districts have voted for the winner in the past five presidential elections: This one, CO-08 and PA-07. In even a minor blue ripple, Barrett is history.
  
  
• NJ-07 (EVEN) Thomas Kean Jr.: Kean is the son of a popular former governor, but now he is on his own. Eight Democrats have filed to run against him, indicating that the locals think he can be beaten. The district is a weird blob west of New York City.
  
  
• NY-17 (D+1) Mike Lawler: He is in a tough district in the Hudson Valley, from just north of White Plains to Pawling and covering much of northern Westchester County, all of Rockland and Putnam Counties and a part of Dutchess County. It is 98% urban and very affluent, with a median household income of $123,000. Republicans tend to have a lot of trouble in this kind of district. Seven Democrats have figured this out and filed already.
  
  
• PA-07 (D+1) Ryan Mackenzie: This is a true swing district. Trump won it in 2016, lost it in 2020, and won it again in 2024. It is in the Lehigh Valley, between Allentown and Hazelton. It is 73% non-Latino white.
  
  
• PA-10 (R+3) Scott Perry: In 2024, Perry won with 50.6% of the vote against Janelle Stelson, who is running again. Without Trump on the ticket and a generally bad environment for Republicans, the R+3 lean of the district may not be enough to save Perry.
  
  
• VA-02 (EVEN) Jen Kiggans: This is a perennial swing district, but the Virginia legislature is busy trying to fix that. Trump won here in 2016, lost here in 2020, and won again in 2024. Four Democrats have filed, including former representative Elaine Luria, who will be tough to beat if she wins the primary.
  
  
• WI-03 (R+3) Derrick Van Orden: This heavily gerrymandered district runs from the Minnesota state line just east of St. Paul down to Dubuque and up to Stevens Point. It is 91% non-Latino white. Trump won the district three times. Two Democrats, including the Eau Claire city council president, Emily Berge, have filed, but Van Orden might well be able to pull off another win unless there is a substantial blue wave.
  

There you have it. These are the House races to watch—so far. If you care about control of the House, you might want to toss some of your now-obsolete pennies in the direction of your favorite candidate(s). (V)