Dem
47
GOP
53
This series, which wasn't even planned, continues to expand. Oh well, in for a penny, in for a pound. Well, in for a nickel, these days.
Today, we are going to talk about the numerous things that the Trump administration has done in the last few days that make very clear, yet again, that this is a fight it wants to have. In the next entry, we are going to talk about how ICE is now under a very big microscope. In the entry after that, we will talk about the national response to all of this. And in the entry after that one, we'll talk about the response in Minnesota. That's how much material we have and it means that, yes, this series is going to run to at least eight parts.
Doubling Down
The overall argument of this series, which we've already stated, and will certainly reiterate once we reach the conclusion, is that this whole mess is going to work to the detriment of the Trump administration and the Republican Party. This conclusion has nothing to do with our own personal views; it is rooted in the response to events that are analogous, or somewhat so, like the murder of George Floyd, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the Los Angeles uprising of 1992, the Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam War, among others. (Teaser: We're also going to mention Joseph McCarthy in the next installment!) Broadly speaking, disorder, violence in the streets, and a sense that the government/law enforcement are out of control does not generally work out well for those who are in power.
It appears that the Trump administration does not see things the way we do. This could be because they have done a different analysis than we have, and have reached different conclusions. Or, it could be because the administration is desperate, and this is the best card they think they have to play. Or, it could be that they've done no analysis at all, and they're just going on what Donald Trump's gut and/or Stephen Miller's erect-at-all-times-these-days penis tell them to do. And note that we regret the vulgar description of Miller, but we cannot think of a better way to characterize the very clear, almost-erotic joy he appears to take in using government muscle against those who are weaker and browner than he is.
Whatever the thought process is, the White House continues to raise the stakes when it comes to Minneapolis and to ICE. We'll start with the biggest story of the day, which is that the acting director of ICE, Todd Lyons, decided last year—specifically, May 12—that asking judges to sign off on warrants is just too much of a hassle. And so, he claimed that power for DHS.
We know all of this because two whistleblowers just came forward with details about the memo. What the memo claims is that ICE officers only need an administrative warrant, instead of a judicial warrant, to enter homes without consent. Administrative warrants are an ethically questionable tool that ICE has used in the past to give their efforts a veneer of legality. The warrants are signed by an ICE official, or sometimes by an immigration judge, and they are meant to trick people into thinking that the agents have permission to do the things a proper judicial warrant allows for, like enter a private home or business, and conduct searches.
Previously, if a person was well-informed enough to be aware of this potential sleight of hand, they could demand to see the warrant, and if it was the wrong kind (i.e., administrative), they could tell ICE to pound sand. What the newly revealed memo says, in so many words, is "Nope! An administrative warrant is exactly the same as a judicial warrant, and ICE officers can enter private properties and conduct searches with either one." This not only violates the Fourth Amendment, but also written DHS policies, including training manuals.
We've already seen this policy in action. In Chicago, agents helicoptered into an apartment building in the middle of the night, breaking into several apartments without warrants and hauling families out into the street. In Minnesota, agents have been going house to house breaking into homes without warrants. There's even video of a home invasion where the ICE officers refuse to show ANY paperwork:
Readers should really consider watching it, because it's scary. And actually, there are lots of videos. This one just captures things particularly clearly, because it was taken by the people whose house was being raided, as opposed to monitors standing outside.
The Fourth Amendment protects "people... in their persons, houses, papers and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures... and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized." A probable cause determination, supported by an oath, can only take place in court with a warrant signed by a judge. Administrative warrants, as we note above, are usually signed by a DHS immigration office and may or may not specify anything. If you would like to see a brief overview of the differences between the two types of warrants, with visuals, you can view this PDF.
The newly outed memo supposedly doesn't distinguish between citizens and non-citizens, which also explains the indiscriminate actions in Chicago and Minnesota. And taken to its logical conclusion, this memo means that ICE agents, who are NOT general law enforcement officers, have more expansive authority than FBI agents, DEA officers or any other federal law enforcement. And yet, the Republican majorities in Congress continue to sit on their keisters and fiddle while Rome burns.
There are at least a few flies in the ointment, not that the Trump administration cares. The first is that agents who break into homes under color of law will not be protected by any immunity and will be criminally and civilly liable to the people whose rights they violate. The people who take jobs with ICE are, uh, not known for being the sharpest tools in the shed, so maybe they don't realize this. Or maybe they don't care, just like the White House doesn't care. They should take note that Trump cannot pardon violations of state law, and that the statutes of limitations for the crimes being committed will not expire until into the next presidential term. So, even if Trump and cronies like FBI Director Kash Patel use all their powers to shield the ICE agents, there will be time for the next presidential administration to get involved. On top of that, the officials responsible for this memo could possibly also be liable for any injuries and, at the very least, impeached and driven from government. Looking at you, Stephen Miller.
Another fly, which has been apparent to us for weeks, is that the lawless and hacky nature of ICE operations has the potential to give carte blanche to criminals. Imagine you want to break into someone's house, with the intent of committing theft, or a kidnapping, or a rape, or some other crime. Well, one way to make that a lot easier is to get some camos and sew one of those "police" patches on the back, and to get a big scary gun and a face mask and a helmet, and to knock on a door pretending to be ICE. Most people won't resist, because doing so could easily end with a person in prison, or dead. There have already been examples of this happening. Think it will become more common, now that fake ICE officers don't even have to come up with a plausible-looking warrant? Or even to ID themselves, apparently (judging from the video linked above)?
That leads directly to a third fly. Lawyers and resistance groups both advise that people whose homes are raided avoid anything physical, and limit themselves to saying "I DO NOT CONSENT TO THIS" and, ideally, trying to get audio or video of the encounter. Still, if someone believes that the ICE agent is fake, or they fear action will be taken against themselves/a family member and they think they have enough cover to say they THOUGHT the agent was fake, then ICE agents could well get fired upon and killed. Part of the reason that legit police have procedures is to protect the rights of the citizens, but another reason is to protect the police themselves. Of course, as we have already written, the Trump administration would likely be delighted to have an officer gunned down, since that would afford an excuse to double down yet again.
The political optics of all of this is a fourth fly, but one we'll address in the next entry in the series.
Moving along, whether "Attorney General" Pam Bondi is a True Believer, or is just trying to keep her job, or both, she is squeezing the protest that took place at Cities Church in St. Paul for all that it is worth. Not only does this involve protesters (which MAGA hates), and protesters who happen to be Black (ibid.), it also involves church (which MAGA claims to love). So, yesterday, Bondi took to eX-Twitter to brag that the Department of Justice has arrested Nekima Levy Armstrong, who was a central figure in the protest. Later, Bondi announced two other arrests.
Do you remember that old game where you would be shown two pictures, and you had to spot the differences? Well, here is the picture of Levy Armstrong that DHS posted immediately after her arrest:
And here is the one that the White House posted a few hours later:
They are, of course, deploying a laughably loose definition of "riots" (and this coming from people who claim that 1/6 was just a rally, or tourists sightseeing). Beyond that, however, did you spot the differences, including the darker skin in the second image? You know, just in case you had any doubts this administration would lean into the race angle for all it's worth.
Bondi would also very much like to arrest and charge Don Lemon, who was present at the "riot." He's Black, gay, and a journalist, so that would be three for the price of one. However, the magistrate judge who signed off on the other arrests refused to sign the complaint against Lemon. Bondi says she will find another judge to sign, and maybe she will. But that's not a very good start, since the early stages of the process are heavily weighted in favor of the prosecution.
The DoJ also had another announcement besides, you know, arresting people. There is a company called Flock, which makes AI-controlled surveillance cameras to capture footage for law-enforcement purposes. There is also a company called Amazon, whose house brand for security cameras is Ring. As of yesterday, Ring owners will be able to share footage with Flock, which will turn the footage over to the feds.
This raises some very good questions. First, how "voluntary" was Amazon's participation in this scheme? Maybe this was one of those "Nice website you've got there—would be a shame if something happened to it" situations. Second, how "voluntary" will citizen participation be, particularly if ICE or some other DoJ organ decides that John Q. Public at 1313 Mockingbird Lane very likely has some VERY useful footage? Third, how careful will Ring/Amazon be when it comes to protecting the privacy of users who choose not to be a part of the program? There have been rather serious lapses in the past, so there's good reason to be wary going forward.
Oh, and one other bit of news from the DoJ; they are going to commence operations in... Maine. The administration is calling this "Catch of the Day" because, see, that's a seafood thing, and Maine is a state with a big-time lobstering industry. Get it? Undoubtedly, that state has just been overrun with undocumented immigrants from Mexico, since the Mexican border is a mere 2,200 miles from The Pine Tree State.
We would imagine that Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is concerned about this development. And we do not mean "concerned" in her usual way, we mean actually concerned. Collins, of course, will be in the fight of her life this year, as she tries to hold onto her seat. If the administration thinks this ICE stuff is a winner, then it makes sense they would head to Maine. In fact, we really can't think of any reason to hit Maine, OTHER than to try to affect the Senate race. (Well, OK, it's at least possible this is another "Four Seasons" moment, or another Trump Iceland/Greenland moment, and someone confused Portland, ME, with Portland, OR—but we don't think so.)
If the goal is indeed to help Collins... wow, we just don't see how that can possibly work out. Maine is historically one of the calmest and most tranquil states in the union, and seeing jackbooted thugs marching down the streets is not likely to play well there. In the nine polls of hypothetical U.S. Senate matchups taken since Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) jumped in, Collins has been up twice (by 3 and 4 points, both over Mills), even twice, and down five times (by 1, 1 and 4 points to Graham Platner, by 5 points to Mills, and by 8 points to "generic Democrat").
We don't see ICE improving the Senator's already tenuous situation. Perhaps some readers feel differently or, alternatively, some readers in Maine can afford a more insider perspective. In either case, the e-mail address is comments@electoral-vote.com. We should also note that Trump is very angry with Collins, and has indicated he would like to see her lose. So, if we want to get really conspiratorial, it may be that hurting her is the real goal here. If that is so, it would be a de facto admission that the White House actually agrees with us, and all this ICE stuff is political poison (outside the deep-red states, at least).
And finally, because the administration senses it has at least a little bit of a messaging problem, it has dispatched The Peacemaker to smooth things over. We speak, of course, of J.D. Vance, who headed to Minneapolis to give a speech about the situation there. He claimed that ICE agents would not be entering people's homes without warrants, and that the only people who oppose ICE are "far-left agitators." These are dubious claims, if by "dubious" you mean "flat-out lies."
Vance also insisted that the administration is trying to turn down the temperature in Minneapolis, but it just can't do it, and it's the fault of local officials:
When you look at Memphis, Tennessee, or Austin, Texas, or any other community virtually across the United States of America, and you don't see the same level of chaos in Minneapolis, the natural conclusion is that it's not what ICE is doing in Minneapolis, it's what Minneapolis authorities are doing to prevent ICE from doing their jobs.
Is that really the natural conclusion, J.D.? Really? While we tend to think that Vance is too smart to believe the lies he tells, it is also the case that if a person plays a role long enough, they can forget themselves. That's the crux of a scene in the movie The Aviator, where Howard Hughes tells then-girlfriend Katharine Hepburn that she's always acting, and when she denies it, he says, "I wonder if you even know anymore." We wonder if Vance can even remember the difference between who he was, and who he's become in his quest for power. In any case, undoubtedly Minnesotans will be thrilled to learn that this is all their fault.
See, we told you the administration keeps doubling down. Next entry on Tuesday. (Z & L)