Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump has a limited repertoire of maneuvers that he uses over and over. He has a very strong preference for one-on-one "deals" rather than multilateral deals. This way he can isolate his opponent, especially if the opponent is smaller or weaker than himself in some way. One of his favorite plays is to make outlandish threats unless the opponent gives him something he wants. Given the outlandishness of the "deal," the opponent rarely gives in. Then Trump can "settle" for a deal not quite as outlandish as his first proposal.
The most recent example occurred on Saturday, when Trump posted this bleat on his "Diplomacy? What's that?" social media network:
If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a "Drop Off Port" for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken. China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life. If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
President DJT
There is so much to unpack here. First, communication between world leaders is not done by bleating on your private social media network. Typically, important messages are given in direct phone calls between the leaders or between the secretary of state and foreign minister. Posting a message somewhere and hoping that the other leader sees it is insulting, especially so with a (former?) ally.
Second, Canada is not a state and will never be a state and Mark Carney is not a governor. He is a prime minister. It is not acceptable to insult foreign leaders, especially (former?) allies. Trump would never dare do this with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is roughly his equal in many ways. Xi would never accept this and would take action to make sure Trump got the message very quickly. Bullies pick only on people weaker than themselves. Always.
Third, China has no intention of destroying Canada. It just wants favorable deals for food and other resources. If Carney wants a deal to sell agricultural products, lumber, minerals, or other products, Xi will bargain hard for a good price, but Carney will not accept a deal that destroys the social fabric of Canada. Xi does not mind this. He just wants a good price for the stuff he is buying. Xi's focus is on building up China's economy, not destroying other countries.
Fourth, Trump is not going to levy a 100% tariff on Canadian exports. It is an idle threat meant to intimidate Canada. The American automobile industry is now widely distributed across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico (as a result of the USMCA, which Donald J. Trump signed on Jan. 29, 2020). Putting a 100% tariff on auto parts would wreak havoc with the auto industry and cost the Republicans dozens of House seats in the Midwest. It would also cause the prices of new houses to skyrocket because many of them are built using Canadian lumber, which would become twice as expensive, if available at all. Home buyers might just notice the huge price spike. Democratic politicians, too.
Fifth, and finally, before he was a politician, Mark Carney was an economist and banker who held several posts of enormous prominence (e.g., Governor of the Bank of England). He's spent decades up to his ears in international finance. Trump is not going to be able to pull the wool over his eyes when it comes to the viability of these sorts of financial shenanigans. It's like trying to intimidate a former general by telling him you'll shoot his country with your secret death ray.
So what is Trump doing and why? This is primarily a response to Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Carney said that middle-size powers should band together to be able to stand up to bigger powers. Trump didn't like that and when he is angry, he always lashes out, without thinking through the consequences. In the end, he typically gives in one way or another, and the status quo ante remains in place. If he does impose 100% tariffs, he will no doubt exempt car parts, construction materials, oil, gas, uranium, electricity, and everything else Canada exports to the U.S. except maybe hockey pucks and maple syrup, and then brag to his base what a great dealmaker he is. (V)