Dem
47
GOP
53
A new Democratic think tank, the Searchlight Institute, which supports popularism (which is not the same as populism) has come out with a poll of likely midterm voters taken at the height of the outrage about the murder of Alex Pretti. It shows that 58% of the respondents want to rein in ICE, with reforming it being more popular than abolishing it. It has started circulating a memo among Democratic leaders urging them to fight for reform (rather than abolition) during the upcoming funding battle. Voters see the need for defending the border and deporting people in the country illegally, but don't like ICE's tactics and want officers to have more and better training and especially to obey the law. They are urging Democrats to play hardball and insist on reform as a condition for funding DHS.
Searchlight's plan is to force the Republicans to split off DHS funding from the rest, pass the rest (which is not very controversial), and then dig in and take a stand refusing to fund DHS unless the law forces ICE to be reformed. The results of the poll show that 35% of independents want reform, which is more popular than any of the other options (abolition, replacement, do nothing, or give ICE more money). Reform would consist of things like not allowing ICE officers to enter anyone's home without a warrant from a Senate-confirmed Article III judge, compelling them to wear identifying information, barring them from detaining U.S. citizens, and more. Even 23% of Republicans support reforming ICE. Searchlight says that the results of the poll show that making a stand here would be popular, and presumably help Democrats in the midterms.
The Institute is pushing Democrats to do things that are popular, regardless of ideology. That does seem like a way to win votes. Although this poll did not address the subject, doing the popular thing would mean dropping positions that are not popular, even if it would make progressives unhappy. For example, poll after poll has shown that the vast majority of Americans do not want trans girls on girls' sports teams. That is the position that Democrats will have to be on, even if it's not a position the individual politicians particularly like. The justification is that the job of a representative is to, well, represent (the views of the people who elected them). The focus here is winning elections. Unlike Henry Clay, they would rather be president than be right. (See below for more.) (V)