Dem
47
GOP
53
All day long, the various news sites kept posting updates on this story. And the narrative kept twisting and turning, presumably because: (1) sausage-making is hard, and (2) Donald Trump, to whom Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has ceded the power of the purse, is mercurial. Add it up, and some elements of the story remain a little fuzzy.
There are two certainties. The first is that there is no chance that the budget bill passed by the House is going to become law. That would require 60 votes in the Senate because of the filibuster, and when Thune brought the measure up for a procedural vote yesterday, the vote failed, 45-55. The careful reader will notice that 45 is considerably less than 60; all the Democrats and independents voted "Nay," along with eight Republicans.
The second certainty is that the government will shut down. Since the House bill failed, it means the House will have to vote on a new bill. They are not in Washington right now. So, even if a deal is hammered out today, there will be no vote until Monday, at the earliest. In the best-case scenario, if everyone involved takes care of business as quickly as is possible, then the shutdown will end up as one of those mini-shutdowns that has very little impact because most of the federal government is closed over the weekend anyhow.
Somewhat less clear is the nature of the actual deal that will resolve the current impasse. The White House and the Democrats reportedly reached agreement on a deal that would advance all the spending bills except the one for DHS. DHS would get a kick-the-can bill that would fund the department for 2 weeks, time for negotiating the ICE sausage. In that scenario, the Democrats would have an enormous amount of leverage, and nearly all the political capital. And so, that process would undoubtedly conclude with new limits on ICE.
However, after it was widely reported that a deal was done, and that the government shutdown would be only brief, one or more senators refused to accede to a voice vote, meaning the bill has to go through the normal (and somewhat glacial) process. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has said he objected to unanimous consent, and implied there were other Republicans who did, as well. It is also worth noting that the Republicans who voted "nay" on the overall funding measure were not the moderates (e.g., Lisa Murkowski, AK, Susan Collins, ME, etc.). No, it was Thune (for procedural reasons), along with the budget hawks: Ted Budd (NC), Ron Johnson (WI), Mike Lee (UT), Ashley Moody (FL), Rand Paul (KY), Rick Scott (FL) and Tommy Tuberville (AL). To get to 60, then, most or all of the Democrats would have to flip and support the deal with Trump, while also holding on to 15 or so of the Republicans who voted "Yea" on the original funding bills.
Assuming the Trump-Democratic compromise passes the Senate (which seems probable, but not certain), then the House gets it. Assuming that the deal makes Democrats happy, it's at least possible that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) won't be willing to bring it to the floor. It's also possible that there won't be enough Republican votes to pass it. Yes, when Trump says "Jump!", Congressional Republicans generally respond: "How high, sir!" But the President is about to experience a weekend in which Stephen Miller and others might put on the hard sell, and the weekend Fox entertainers (who tend to be more extreme than the weekday entertainers, as remarkable as that is) might lambaste the deal. So, Trump could very well do a 180 by then.
Assuming the deal passes, in its current form or something like it, then it will be time to argue about exactly what limitations will be imposed on ICE. Already, some Republicans are signaling that they do not intend to make this easy. For example, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) decreed, "We can't do it in 2 weeks." He thinks 6 would be better, and says 3 is the bare minimum.
He might want to be careful what he wishes for. Again, the Democrats have nearly all the political capital right now, and their base has made very clear that it wants the Party to have this fight. The more time that passes, the more chance there is for ICE to gun another person down, or to do something else outrageous that will serve to add to the Democrats' already-existing tailwinds. In any event, we shall soon see exactly how much heart Congressional Republicans actually have for this fight. (Z)