Dem
47
GOP
53
Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has already been indicted for a list of campaign-funding-related crimes. Yesterday, the House Ethics Committee released its own report about the matter. Checking in at 59 pages, it lays out a great deal of evidence of the Representative's guilt, evidence compiled after the Committee reviewed 33,000 documents, conducted dozens of interviews, issued 59 subpoenas and met 12 times to discuss the matter. Note that the Ethics Committee is much more shrouded in secrecy than other House organs. However, it is evenly divided in terms of partisan representation (3 R, 3 D), meaning that at least one Democrat had to vote to release the report. And probably all three of them did. Point being, this is not just partisan shenanigans like what you so often see from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).
After the release of the report, Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) announced that he will introduce a resolution to expel Cherfilus-McCormick from the House. That resolution pretty much IS partisan shenanigans, since it is certain to fail. Even if every Republican voted for expulsion, about 80 Democrats would need to cross the aisle to vote with them, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) made clear that isn't happening.
The issue here, and the thing that makes Steube guilty of shenanigans, is that his resolution is premature, at least based on past precedent. Most members who get into the kind of trouble in which Cherfilus-McCormick finds herself enmeshed tend to fall on their swords voluntarily, to avoid the embarrassment of being booted out. For those who don't, a successful expulsion vote invariably follows one of two events: (1) they are convicted in court, or (2) the Ethics Committee meets and makes a recommendation for expulsion. In this case, the meeting will take place in March. Given what we already know, it seems likely that they will recommend that Cherfilus-McCormick get the boot. At that point, Steube's resolution will be appropriate.
We don't know exactly why Cherfilus-McCormick is digging in. She has said the usual things about how she has not gotten to tell her story, and that the truth will come out, and so forth. It is possible that she believes all of those things. The other possibility is that she knows full well that once her seat comes vacant, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will do everything possible to keep it vacant for as long as he can, probably until November. Needless to say, with the fight over DHS looming (see above), the Democrats need every vote for the next few weeks.
At the moment, the House is 218 R, 213 D. In the first 2 weeks of March, that will become 219 R, 214 D when the very red district previously represented by Marjorie Taylor Greene and the very blue district previously represented by Sylvester Turner get new members within a few days of each other. Should Cherfilus-McCormick be expelled sometime in March, then obviously it will be 219 R, 213 D. That seems to be a safe assumption for future purposes of future sausage-making calculations.
The balance will go back to 219 R, 214 D in early April, when the very blue district previously represented by Mikie Sherill gets a new member. And then, in August, a replacement for Republican Doug LaMalfa will be elected. It will probably be a Republican, but given the political climate and the shifting maps in California, that's not certain. Anyhow, for much of this year, assuming there are no more deaths/resignations, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will likely be able to afford only two defections if the Democrats remain unified.
And if Cherfilus-McCormick somehow holds on, then Johnson will only be able to afford one defection for much of this year. In that scenario, a party-line vote will be 219-215, a one-GOP-defector vote will be 218-216, and a two-GOP-defector vote will be 217-217. Since a tie means "the measure failed," that leaves a one-defector margin of error. With Donald Trump growing increasingly erratic, one hopes the Speaker has ordered an extra supply of Tums, because he's going to need it. (Z)